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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 21
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      Still can’t believe the official Chinese Covid fatalatity statistics of just over 4634. Even if it’s “only” an order of magnitude off and the real number is 46k it’s still unbelievably good. Hard to believe authoritarian control works that perfectly. Anyone have alt estimates?

      23 replies 4 retweets 84 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 21
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      Accepting 100x as high US fatality rate as correct, and factoring out aging population, obesity, I’d like to see a real estimate of “cost of freedom” fatalities vs “cost of trump” fatalities. We’ll never know for sure. I’d guess Trumpism added 20% on top of basic Americanism.

      4:28 PM - 21 Nov 2020
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      • WoodIsGood Death will not release you Aishwarya Nagarajan James Barton Erik Johnson A. F. Isakovic Kyle Stratis Reclusive Wizard Galactic Federation
      9 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 21
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          I do believe the India numbers, currently at 133k. More like China in size and culture, more like US in governance. Accounting for much younger population, I’d say the better performance is entirely a result of the early strict lockdown that they couldn’t keep going long enough.

          3 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 21
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          The US really seems like a case of “play stupid games, win stupid prizes” What’s the game what’s the prize

          9 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 21
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          This table is in many ways the future map of the world. Similarity of Covid performance is the new top geopolitical affinity variable. It mostly mirrors old affinities but not exactly.https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/ …

          1 reply 4 retweets 18 likes
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        5. End of conversation
        1. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          The honest comparison is going to end up being to Western European counties. And we're ahead, but not that much ahead. And they did government permits to make it legal to leave the house. So there's some "Cost of freedom" on top of that.

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        1. Charlie Sanders‏ @CharlieSand3rs Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          Authoritarianism and state control has some specific areas where it’s light-years better than liberalism. Public health response is one of those areas.

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        1. Zack Stoltzfus‏ @RulesBot3000 Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          I would be curious about those stats too. I think your Trumpism number is reasonable but I would still take the over

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        1. David o'Bedlam‏ @David_o_Bedlam Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          Probably more. We can be galvanized into action by good leadership; the falloff would be more like 50%. Maybe more than that. Trump's negligence had criminal intent surrounding it, rather than mere laissez-faire neglect.

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        1. Martin Drashkov‏ @drashkov Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          The Trump multiplier is just the US death rate divided by Canada's rate. Currently sitting at ~2.5x and growing, or 160k people.

          0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
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        1. A. F. Isakovic‏ @AIsakovic1 Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          Without intent of commenting on veracity of China stats, there are believable stats from other places, both with liberal democratic gov type and authoritarian (UAE) indicating that a potent combo of trumpism and exceptionalism contributed to now over 300k deaths in US.

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        2. Smerity‏ @Smerity Nov 21
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          Replying to @vgr

          Agreed with others that Trumpism likely added many more. If Trump had gotten his base to wear masks as enthusiastically as they wear his hats, doing nothing more than signaling COVID is real and "patriots protect patriots", that could have well mitigated the "cost of freedom".

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 21
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          Replying to @Smerity

          I’m not so sure. He reinforced what the base was already inclined to do. He followed the mob. It’s not clear he could have led them.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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