Venkatesh Rao

The thing is, the easiest cross-promotion to do is the kind that reinforces existing tribes. A "if you like this, you'll like this also" approach will hook greenwald subscribers up to writers who are also like greenwald. Going against grain will be hard.

Along-the-grain cross-promotion will lower fragility a bit wrt single 800lb bluechekerillas, but simply bump the fragility up a level to an existing tribe. Patreon discovered this the hard way. Now you have to scenario-plan the exit risk revenue hit of entire tribes.

Worse, the tribes will realize it too, and will achieve a platform-local tribal consciousness and begin trying to "own" the platform, regardless of whatever the cross-promotion algorithms do along/against the grain. The platform will be drawn into a fight against its own readers.

I think Substack is doing many of the right things for the current stage of the platform. For example, focusing hard on empowering writers rather than readers, and doing a lot for beginning writers trying to build an audience... that's all good.

Reshape the curve away from 800lb bluecheckerrila dependence. Ideal for people like me, the mid-level non-brand-name types would be if substack could afford to lose any single bluecheck and never have to go to cross-promotion at all. This requires healthy margins from long tail

This is why it is short-sighted to complain about their high fee percentage (10% on top of credit card fees as opposed to say the fixed fee of ghost or mailchimp). They need to be making enough money off the long tail to resist the pressures created by 800lbers.

I don't grudge them that. I'm open to things like ghost and memberful, but it is polyannish to believe they resolve the issues. I was on mailchimp for a long time (still am for my basic ribbonfarm list) but their incentives for eg. push the product towards marketing clients.

Ghost is new enough that it isn't showing its own vulnerabilities, but there will be some. No free lunch. Content platform Pick 2 of 3 triangle: optimal featureset for you, low cost, high variance/low-bias.