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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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    bluecheck invasion ruining substack a bit 😬

    11:58 AM - 17 Nov 2020
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    • 98 Likes
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    7 replies 2 retweets 98 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I have more hope for the platform than for Medium or Patreon (that's why I'm on it). It has less of a top-down cultural feel, and little to no cross-talk/cross-flow across newsletters, which is a good thing. Sacrifices content-network effect for diversity.

        1 reply 0 retweets 26 likes
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      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Basically the bias-variance tradeoff writ large. An aggregator platform will either have a large bias or a large variance. So far, unlike Medium or patreon (or livejournal or tumblr or what have you) substack is heading towards higher variance. x

        3 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
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      4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        But the arrival of 800lb gorilla bluechecks like Greenwald and Yglesias means that there is going to be an optics problem. They'll account for 1% of the writers, 30% of the unique subscribers, and 80% of optics. So even if the base has high variance, it will look like high bias.

        1 reply 0 retweets 36 likes
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      5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        The optics will drive preferential attachment of both readers and writers. And increasing number of readers will be singletons attached to single bluecheck-grade writers. Which means the exit-risk cost of a these single writers will be disproportionately high.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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      6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Unfortunately, the incentives are going to be tough for @SubstackInc because the exit-risk cost associated with teh 800lb gorillas means there will be pressure to overserve them, and underserve the long tail. The long tail is lower-margin.

        2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
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      7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I've chatted with Chris and Hamish. Great guys, and the fundamental sanity they seem to be bringing to this is a big part of the reason I got on board in April 2019, about a year before the bluechecks began discovering it. But their job is going to be really tough here very soon.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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      8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        To lower singleton-subscriber risk associated with big bluechecks (ie readers only subscribed to say Greenwald), the most obvious option is to drive cross-promotion. Ie, attach their readers to other writers too, so platform revenue isn't sensitively dependent on 800lbers.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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      9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        But the *moment* you decide to exercise the cross-promotion option, you're no longer editorially neutral. You're moving away from variance and towards bias on the bias-tvariance tradeoff curve.

        1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
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      10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        The thing is, the easiest cross-promotion to do is the kind that reinforces existing tribes. A "if you like this, you'll like this also" approach will hook greenwald subscribers up to writers who are also like greenwald. Going against grain will be hard.

        1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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      11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Along-the-grain cross-promotion will lower fragility a bit wrt single 800lb bluechekerillas, but simply bump the fragility up a level to an existing tribe. Patreon discovered this the hard way. Now you have to scenario-plan the exit risk revenue hit of entire tribes.

        1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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      12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Worse, the tribes will realize it too, and will achieve a platform-local tribal consciousness and begin trying to "own" the platform, regardless of whatever the cross-promotion algorithms do along/against the grain. The platform will be drawn into a fight against its own readers.

        2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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      13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I think Substack is doing many of the right things for the current stage of the platform. For example, focusing hard on empowering writers rather than readers, and doing a lot for beginning writers trying to build an audience... that's all good.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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      14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Reshape the curve away from 800lb bluecheckerrila dependence. Ideal for people like me, the mid-level non-brand-name types would be if substack could afford to lose any single bluecheck and never have to go to cross-promotion at all. This requires healthy margins from long tail

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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      15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        This is why it is short-sighted to complain about their high fee percentage (10% on top of credit card fees as opposed to say the fixed fee of ghost or mailchimp). They need to be making enough money off the long tail to resist the pressures created by 800lbers.

        3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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      16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I don't grudge them that. I'm open to things like ghost and memberful, but it is polyannish to believe they resolve the issues. I was on mailchimp for a long time (still am for my basic ribbonfarm list) but their incentives for eg. push the product towards marketing clients.

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Ghost is new enough that it isn't showing its own vulnerabilities, but there will be some. No free lunch. Content platform Pick 2 of 3 triangle: optimal featureset for you, low cost, high variance/low-bias.

        3 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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      18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        An instructive precedent is the adjacent courseware sector. The el cheapo platforms really don't work for indie course creators. Teachable does, BUT costs an arm and a leg and STILL had to sell itself to a Brazilian PE firm to survive.

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Courses require way more work to turn into profitable low-touch income streams. My teachable account just barely pays for itself because I don't put in the work to keep publishing new courses, running live cohorts, or updating old courses.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I'm considering EITHER kicking my teachable stuff up a notch next year or shutting it down entirely. I'm in an untenable place with it long term. Kicking it up a notch will require periodic effort spikes, as opposed to newsletters which require steady effort commitments.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        But to return to substack. I a) like the product b) am willing to continue paying the price premium to keep it long-tail/variance oriented c) don't like the alternative incentive pressures competing platforms face.

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        But one thing I'm not doing is moving home base from blogging like I was considering last year. Wordpress is an aging monster in many ways, but it is still the worthwhile foundational piece of the puzzle.

        2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        The one wildcard in this picture is where static sites will go -- gatsby, jekyll etc. I've now been on the sidelines of one pretty ambitious static site (http://yakcollective.org ) and developed a better appreciation of the potential there, but definitely not for pure writers

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Still rounding out the views I put forth in my text renaissance post earlier this year, and might potentially use the ideas to expand the longform course on teachable so I can make money off all this content industry prognisticationhttps://www.ribbonfarm.com/2020/02/24/a-text-renaissance/ …

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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      25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        This is my art of longform course. I need about 2-3 weeks uninterrupted time to record a 2x expanded version covering all this new stuff, but haven't been able to find the time. I don't think I'll have the time to run a live cohort, which would be ideal. https://ribbonfarm.teachable.com/p/the-art-of-longform …

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Venkatesh Rao Retweeted mrgunn

        This is a good point. WordPress violates my platform point by... simply not being a platform at all. It is featureset optimal, can be low cost (if you self host and have low traffic) and high variance.https://twitter.com/mrgunn/status/1328800252141334528 …

        Venkatesh Rao added,

        mrgunn @mrgunn
        Funny how bluechecks never ruined blogging, or even WordPress. This is how having a brand cuts both ways. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1328789670570848258 …
        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I think this is because Automattic failed at making wordpress dot com a true platform level competitor to things like Medium. It never outgrew roots as basically an open source product rather than a platform. What it actually competes with are hosted WP players like WPengine

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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      28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        I've been on WPEngine a long time, happily paying premium to not have to think about the headaches of self-admin'ed WP. But hosted WP is not a platform and can never be. The tech is fundamentally a digital mansion. At most you can create a feudal landscape of mansions. Not a city

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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      29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        This article has apparently been doing the rounds ht @noupsidehttps://www.cjr.org/special_report/substackerati.php …

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Will read and comment later on this thread. Stopping for some Real Work™

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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      31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 17
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        Ok, read it. Kinda meh. The writer kinda doesn't get it I think. The choice to center the kind of writer who is hoping to go to a secure paid gig at the same level of effort, lower risk, and more pay, is not really the interesting kind of writer for the future.

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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      32. Show replies

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