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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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      These military/intelligence purges are worrying Feels like people are way too complacent and keep-calm-and-carry-on mode

      15 replies 28 retweets 245 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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      It is tempting to think GOP only wants to milk the uncertainty for Georgia runoffs and will rein him in after certified results. But I don’t think they’re as in charge as they think, and many are not really particularly committed to democracy anymore.

      2 replies 6 retweets 83 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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      The point of FUD is that it opens up new options for the FUD-creator. It’s not that he has a specific plan here. But he’s not wrong in hoping more moving parts equals more options for him.

      3 replies 5 retweets 71 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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      Keep going back to the thought that given a choice between sacrificing conservatism or democracy, the GOP will sacrifice democracy. Demographics is against them. The electoral system, senate structure, all just buy time. The choice is inevitable. A question of when, not if.

      9 replies 14 retweets 105 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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      So some in the GOP will no doubt be thinking: why not force it now while we still have power. I’m guessing there’s enough room in the electoral vote process for endless procedural fuckery by willing collaborators.

      6:53 PM - 10 Nov 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 42 Likes
      • im only 5'3 Saki max arb toxoid i wanna be sublated n8 🌲tristan b☔️ Death will not release you Natalie
      1 reply 2 retweets 42 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          If I had to guess, a third of GOP is behind him and will lie, cheat and break laws for him. Another third would do everything except break laws. Norms and conventions will be zero protection from them. The final third has some sort of idealistic faith but no spine and will cave.

          2 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          There is an unexamined assumption that the US state is not capturable this way, but then nobody has really tried to capture it. The conceit that the constitution is divinely perfect makes me suspect the thing is just a pile of exploits just waiting to be hacked.

          6 replies 13 retweets 131 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          Another holy cow assumption is that the US military is somehow incorruptible in this department. Again, I don’t share the faith. Nixon tried to court them for a coup and failed but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. He’s managed to corrupt pockets of domestic forces already.

          3 replies 4 retweets 52 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          The entire narrative that this is just a childish tantrum that will resolve itself if we just patiently wait it out is built on a house of cards. I’m sure Biden has a much stronger legal team, but the other side has all the levers of incumbency.

          5 replies 4 retweets 62 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          It’s depressing that the *best* case explanation here is simply buying more time to steal stuff, run grifts for a few weeks longer, etc. The worst case is an unintentional unraveling. It doesn’t have to be intended and cunningly schemed to go badly. Improv under chaos is enough.

          2 replies 9 retweets 78 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted robotmascot

          This sort of faith assumes clean fights. The way it would actually work is: he does something sketchy, crowd gathers that one side calls peaceful protests and the other labels terrorism. Cops give way to NG, and then regular military. Ends with tanks on the streets.https://twitter.com/AdamdelCano/status/1326366856257687552 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          robotmascot @AdamdelCano
          Replying to @vgr
          Likeliest outcome re: military is "we're not taking a side here, fight amongst yourselves we're just going to prevent anyone storming the capitol." Taking a side by default because backing the incumbent sounds like neutrality/noninterference at every step of the way.
          4 replies 1 retweet 35 likes
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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          The BLM protests over the summer provided a nice dry run for a whole class of unraveling excuses. Throw in a few false flags and the situation gets much more programmable than people think.

          3 replies 2 retweets 51 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          Note that a peaceful legitimate transfer of power is *already* no longer an option. They’ve already undermined faith in the process with a third of the population, for a lifetime. Legitimacy isn’t an objective feature of a set of institutions but a high-inertia perception.

          2 replies 8 retweets 101 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          We still talk of Florida 2000, and FDR’s shenanigans in the 30s. The living system is not even the nerdy, poorly play-tested tabletop game of 1787. It’s that plus a history of sketchy hacks and patches and service packs. We’re at Windows 95 stage of evolution, headed to Vista.pic.twitter.com/lgZmaNCFdy

          3 replies 1 retweet 47 likes
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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          The highest likelihood outcome is still just a bumpy and frayed but otherwise non-crisis transition. Which people will jump to see as validation that the system just “works” and all thus agonizing was needless worry. Exactly the wrong conclusion to draw.

          4 replies 7 retweets 62 likes
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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          When near misses increase in frequency gradually, fragility is increasing. The adjacent possible is turning into a dangerous abyss. Just because you walked a tightrope successfully doesn’t mean it’s the same as an ordinary path.

          5 replies 8 retweets 78 likes
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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          Also don’t forget: near misses aren’t harmless. They just hurt people and things at the margins. If you’re one of the sanguine, secure ones, you won’t be hurt.

          3 replies 3 retweets 59 likes
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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 10
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          Murder is impossible because it is illegal The United States cannot unravel or slide into autocracy because the constitution forbids it

          3 replies 4 retweets 60 likes
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        15. End of conversation

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