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16. We saw a long-nurtured apparatus produce fait-accompli outcomes in the judiciary: the Federalist society had a mission accomplished moment under Trump. What did we learn? 17. What enabling archetypes besides Trump emerged as important? McConnell, Bannon, Miller... who else?
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18. China relations are probably the only area where even Trump haters like me would be willing to concede he accomplished something: a reset in an unsatisfactory 2015 equilibrium. What did he accomplish and at what cost? What parts are worth keeping? What costs need addressing?
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19. What did Woke/SJW learn? What did we learn about it? Where does it go from here? 20. What did we the alt-right learn? What did we learn about it? Where does it go from here? 21. What new things did we learn about race relations? 22. What did we learn about immigration?
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I’ll stop here for now. Enough can still go wrong between now and January (including a proof-of-simulator-interference level improbable Trump comeback) that I don’t want to get ahead of events even in indexing obvious questions. Next batch of questions after official results.
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Things that can go wrong in order of increasing improbability 1. Trump finds non-frivolous legal challenge 2. Far-right triggers game-changing unrest 3. Assassinations of key figures 4. Natural-cause deaths 5. Statistical miracle gets Trump to 270* * proof that this is a sim
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One question I *don’t* intend to worry about: how trump voters will react. They do them, we do us. Half this problem was caused by us trying to have both sides of this us-vs-them conversation. We’ve already excruciatingly analyzed and modeled them for 4 years. We’re good there.
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23. What have we learned about Big Cheater games? (see next few tweets in quoted thread for context)
Quote Tweet
Strikes me there are two kinds of games: 1. games designed by idealists to make cheating hard 2. games designed by self-dealing elites to make cheating easy He’s used to type 2 and elections are type 1. It takes a lot long-term more work (eg gerrymandering) to cheat in type 1
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24. The progressives helped Biden bring in enough democrats to win, but the national vote is a clear mandate against progressives. How will they negotiate their policy goals against that powerful background headwind?
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25. Early signs point to a Biden Derangement Syndrome (BDS) that’s much narrower but far deeper than Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). 1/3 the number of people under 3x higher psychosis threat. What has the experience with TDS taught us about how to mitigate BDS?
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26. Was polarization merely a pair of availability cascades around dead-end left/right extremist rhetoric? Will there be a moderation availability cascade if spotlight is on boring things, making depolarization a self-fulfilling prophecy?
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27. Did the outcome invalidate the deep-corruption promises of contrarian holy warrior revolutionary fervor on both ends or is this merely a halfway pause before a bernieward swing in 2024?
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28. Will the presidency as a cult of personality give way to a more lowkey role for the office, now that we’ve seen the perils of both too much positive and negative charisma? Can we be done with that charisma malarkey or will we fall for yet another angel-demon king in 2024?
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Amending question 25 a bit. Ryan is right, Biden does not arouse derangement level passions. BDS is really not symmetric with TDS. It’s really TLDS: Trump-loss derangement syndrome. It would exist no matter who he lost to. t.co/XdHmLiTYOh
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29. Trump’s base was people whose life scripts dead-ended in the 1980s when their future went to China and robots. Is the woke base also a dead-end life script of intersectional dense-urban diversity as an end in itself? Has their future too gone elsewhere? Where? Service robots?
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So what is the biggest thing we learned? I think it is this: Big cities have endured for 2500 years, 10 times longer than the United States, and through pandemics 100x bigger. They’re not going anywhere.
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30. What have we learned about the future of cities, since it’s clear natural liberalism lives or dies with cities?
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31. What did we learn about the difference between law and order (both literal and dogwhistle versions) and criminality/corruption? 2x2: low to high law and order vs low to high criminality and corruption
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Abandoning this thread post insurrection... the questions are still relevant but are now in too much of a new context to be worth asking unchanged
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Simply a pause in my opinion. The mix that we have gotten(Biden presidency, likely republican senate, thin edge dem house majority) won’t be able to resolve most of the major issues of the day, this stoking a populist revolt in ‘24. I expect a competitive primary for dems + repub
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Two big learnings in my opinion: 1) Dems at large are stuck in 1996 when "digital" wasn't a medium. They need a much better digital ground game - R's figured this out for 2016.
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