CNN is doing a weird analysis where they’re acting like Biden has more of a chance because there’s more combinatorial pathways for him. This is ridiculous. You have to weight that pathways by likelihood. 3 unlikely stories for not represent 3x likelihood as 1 good story.
-
-
Commercial break: This part of the tweetstorm is sponsored by Sirius Cybernetics. In the grimdark future there will only be robots with Real People Personalities™ to look forward to.pic.twitter.com/xpWdMB0P9m
Show this thread -
Thought: there are elections that change everything (1980, 2016) and ordinary elections that convince you nothing can ever change. There are false positives (2008, 2020) that you think will change everything but reinforce nothing-will-change-itis. And false negatives (1964?)
Show this thread -
In the US, only presidential elections seem to have global equilibrium shifting powers. Congress is important mainly for optimizing locally within a new region of attraction set by a narrative shifting president and locking in gains.
Show this thread -
Ok, must save lessons learned for later. Back to meditating on the hive-mind present-moment stream. Nothing continues to furiously happen in AZ, GA, NV, PA. I don’t think NC and AK are meaningfully in the decision matrix.
Show this thread -
Hot take: Contra take that Trump will stick around as a power center even if he loses, because he fueled a red wave to shape congress races... no. He’s done the job the party needed to shift the equilibrium and is too much chaos to keep around. He’ll be kicked to the curb.
Show this thread -
They’ll find some face-saving sidelined role for him and a different way to keep the activated new base engaged and enraged. He was the booster rocket. They’re in orbit now. He’s no longer needed and a serious liability for the exercise of actual political power.
Show this thread -
-
Again I’m not sure. His past TV appeal was based on camp. The audience was mostly laughing at him, not admiring him as he thought. His POTUS rhetorical style was based on whining and evasion and posturing which does not translate well to even Sean Hannity style commentary.https://twitter.com/LukeThinksShow/status/1324472590832861184 …
Show this thread -
He likes to be the center of attention, not comment from the sidelines or merely own the media empire from the back room like Murdoch. Also note that a lot of his charisma is derived from being in office. It’s not clear to me his base will see him the same out of it.
Show this thread -
When people go out on top on their own terms, like star athletes who retire at the right time, many doors are open. I think people are underestimating the effects of even a narrow loss all around. He’ll milk the “unfair theft” shtick for a while but it’s not a career.
Show this thread -
I’m not writing him off. He’s more of a live player at 73 than I am at 47. Runs on pure bile which seems to act as an astonishing elixir of life for him. He’ll find some way to matter. It just won’t be the 2 obvious possibilities of offstage kingmaker in politics or media.
Show this thread -
True. The birther thing was a major kayfabe win. I’d expect something along those lines. Producer and booster of conspiracy theories. Maybe even documentaries like Al Gore.https://twitter.com/mkbdrx1/status/1324481815667761154 …
Show this thread -
Typo, I’ll be 46 in a few weeks not 47. Anyhow, still no news huh?
Show this thread -
-
If he wins with PA, it will be vindication of the value of technically correct and statsistically conservative strategy in a game with a long history. He bet on the boring play of rebuilding the Blue Wall that Trump breached in 2016. No fancy narrative. Just do the math right.
Show this thread -
It would be poetic justice if a figurative “rebuilt wall” kept Trump from a second term. Tactical fumbles like the Latinos-against-Socialism stuff in Florida foreshadow future strategic concerns, but in the short term, betting on the proven strategy seems to have been wise.
Show this thread -
A good question in this context. I think "wise" political strategy in US elections is not just making historically data-driven decisions (that's merely smart), but also tuning out all massive noise levels about all sorts of things that just don't matter.https://twitter.com/muzkmuzkmuzk/status/1324526374736982016 …
Show this thread -
This might be the first time I've noticed NYT baldly use the word "lies" in a headline about Trump instead of euphemisms like "claimed without evidence" ... has this happened before?pic.twitter.com/YPzLXu2Ifp
Show this thread -
Nothing happening at go brrrr rates on CNNhttps://twitter.com/daretorant/status/1324497396848447491?s=21 …
Show this thread -
Getting bored by this. That’s a good sign. We’re not going back to normal, but we can potentially go back to boring for a while.
Show this thread -
If Biden brings it home I would like to request an ASMR presidency. Happy little trees. Free Bob Ross painting kit for everyone with next stimulus check.
Show this thread -
Oh I just realized Token Republican on CNN is Rick Santorum. This is a world I do rarely pay attention to I don’t know most of the players by face.
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
