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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      If it’s Trump, dark age If it’s Biden, dark age served coldhttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323294268438450176?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      Thought for the week: “If it's chicken, chicken a la king. If it's fish, fish a la king. If it's turkey, fish a la king.” — Bender, on Iron Chef
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Ian Bogost

      This explains everythinghttps://twitter.com/ibogost/status/1324071758782177281?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Ian BogostVerified account @ibogost
      No matter whether you approve of it or not, the Electoral College is what you’d get if you let a tabletop board-game designer create an election process.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      “Whoever wins” is a fun twitter search right now. Everybody is hedging expectations and trying to be antifragile 🤣

      1 reply 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted

      I’m pretty invested in this election at Twitter level but there are a LOT more invested people in the ground. This has been one of the more surreal things https://twitter.com/mrdanzak/status/1324191985352220672?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      An extremely new disease, Arizona Derangement Syndrome, ADS has taken hold. It’ll be done in a few days... unless it turns into Florida.

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Premature calls are really dangerous because you get loss aversion shock when it doesn’t actually work out. Last night AZ looked like it was so safe, Fox called it for Biden (in despair? Bracing for a shock?). Now it looks like the expected flip might be flipped. Flip-flop state.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Commercial break: This portion of the livetweet brought to you by the Grand Canyon. Enjoy the greatest canyon in the world just hours from maricopa county where the fate of empires hangs in the balance an outbreak of Arizona Derangement Syndrome is underway.pic.twitter.com/bcV3sXuJFg

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Rafael Irizarry

      Meanwhile in PA linear regression is the clear winnerhttps://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324202842484330496?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Rafael Irizarry @rafalab
      Replying to @rafalab @Nate_Cohn
      Last update of the night: pic.twitter.com/hMI6fJgTRY
      1 reply 4 retweets 21 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Brendan Keefe

      Can Biden flip Georgia before Trump reflips Arizona? 🧐https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324208012265967617?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Brendan KeefeVerified account @BrendanKeefe
      Another big Fulton County vote count update: 27.8K votes just got counted Trump: 5,683 Biden: 22,118 That's a net gain of 16,435 for Biden
      Show this thread
      1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Nicole Valdes

      We’ve gone tacticool in maricopahttps://twitter.com/nicolevaldestv/status/1324210703603961856?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      0:21
      Nicole Valdes @NicoleValdesTV
      This @mcsoaz team just arrived in full tactical gear, got a look at the crowd. Could be planning to make a move on demonstrators outside. pic.twitter.com/TCbKcXRNju
      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
      Show this thread
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      If this drags on into tomorrow I’ll have to get back to work. Could only block out 2 days for the dooooomscrolling

      8:59 PM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 21 Likes
      • Dan Grover Aishwarya Nagarajan Saki Corey Yanofsky, sparkling statistician brutal oration 🏎️🐀💨 Lucas Blanco 🇵🇷 J H (wannabe) Ƀreaker of (the Bad) Loops An abundance of caution
      2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          CNN explains the AZ mystery: late mail/drop off in AZ is skewing republican because they’ve been doing it for longer etc. Unlike everywhere else where it’s tending strongly for Biden.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Update soon it looks like. They might have to pause the count till tomorrow because open carry trumpies demonstrating for trump are creating a security situation in the parking lot making a shift change hard or something 🙄

          3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          This is kinda idiotic. They’re winning this and disrupting the count?

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Okay looks like nothing more will move tonight. GA and AZ will both take overnight at least. GA just narrowed a bit more in favor of Biden. This is like watching Cthulhu colored* paint dry. I’m going to call it a night soon. * greenish grey

          2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          CNN is doing a weird analysis where they’re acting like Biden has more of a chance because there’s more combinatorial pathways for him. This is ridiculous. You have to weight that pathways by likelihood. 3 unlikely stories for not represent 3x likelihood as 1 good story.

          6 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          I think I’ll wake up to AZ and GA being called for Trump by a whisker and NV going from safe to dicey for Biden like AZ did today, and it coming down to PA and a courtroom battle. 😬pic.twitter.com/qhRu7To0zB

          1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Live webcam from PApic.twitter.com/MsCPUSvc6c

          1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Maricopa County Elections Department

          Maricopa is continuing the count despite the nazgul buzzing themhttps://twitter.com/maricopavote/status/1324223330912669696?s=21 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Maricopa County Elections DepartmentVerified account @MaricopaVote
          Staff at the @maricopacounty Elections Department will continue our job, which is to administer elections in the second largest voting jurisdiction in the county. We will release results again tonight as planned. We thank the @mcsoaz for doing their job, so we can do ours.
          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Calling it a night. Now for another chapter of The Hydrogen Sonata. First Trump term I read all of Pratchett. If he wins again I’m reading all of Iain M. Banks. If Biden wins I’ll have to get back to work since a slim shot at a non-sucky future will be briefly back in play.

          4 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Good morning. I see nothing has changed. The universe is still expanding, entropy is still increasing, Trump still hates Edmond Dantes, and the race has narrowed everywhere. I guess the ooga booga will continue until morale improves.

          2 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          The market isn’t doing anything particularly interesting or intelligent that I can see. It’s such a delightfully mediocre superintelligence. Doesn’t even harbor a basilisk.pic.twitter.com/F0WZV7kqCT

          3 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Haven’t really been following senate or house either, but that’s doing what I thought it would. I had some hope of a more decisive rejection of Trump but never believed in a blue wave for congress, and am not sure I even was in favor of it. The party hasn’t earned it.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          So looks like a divided Congress by a very slim margin in both houses. Aka gridlock for a president who will be a lame duck on day 1. Which would suit either of them fine. Biden won’t try to be bold with a narrow mandate, Trump has no big ideas now that the courts are secured.

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Big picture: Monarch (emperor = potus): weaker First estate (clergy = media): weaker Second estate (nobility = congress): weaker Third estate (“commoners” = stock/home-owning wealthy): stronger Fourth estate (social media): stronger Fifth estate (under-the-API workers): weaker

          1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
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        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Derek Thompson

          Moodhttps://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1324380977762885635 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Derek ThompsonVerified account @DKThomp
          It's like the entire country is floating around in some miasmic Don DeLillo fever dream of knowing every last detail about why we will never truly know anything
          Show this thread
          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Commercial break: This part of the tweetstorm is sponsored by Sirius Cybernetics. In the grimdark future there will only be robots with Real People Personalities™ to look forward to.pic.twitter.com/xpWdMB0P9m

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Thought: there are elections that change everything (1980, 2016) and ordinary elections that convince you nothing can ever change. There are false positives (2008, 2020) that you think will change everything but reinforce nothing-will-change-itis. And false negatives (1964?)

          2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          In the US, only presidential elections seem to have global equilibrium shifting powers. Congress is important mainly for optimizing locally within a new region of attraction set by a narrative shifting president and locking in gains.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Ok, must save lessons learned for later. Back to meditating on the hive-mind present-moment stream. Nothing continues to furiously happen in AZ, GA, NV, PA. I don’t think NC and AK are meaningfully in the decision matrix.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Hot take: Contra take that Trump will stick around as a power center even if he loses, because he fueled a red wave to shape congress races... no. He’s done the job the party needed to shift the equilibrium and is too much chaos to keep around. He’ll be kicked to the curb.

          4 replies 3 retweets 27 likes
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        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          They’ll find some face-saving sidelined role for him and a different way to keep the activated new base engaged and enraged. He was the booster rocket. They’re in orbit now. He’s no longer needed and a serious liability for the exercise of actual political power.

          6 replies 0 retweets 32 likes
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        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          dzzzzooompic.twitter.com/cCfZYPiw6o

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Luke Thomas

          Again I’m not sure. His past TV appeal was based on camp. The audience was mostly laughing at him, not admiring him as he thought. His POTUS rhetorical style was based on whining and evasion and posturing which does not translate well to even Sean Hannity style commentary.https://twitter.com/LukeThinksShow/status/1324472590832861184 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Luke Thomas @LukeThinksShow
          Replying to @vgr
          If he loses, he takes over OANN or Newsmax and immediately dethrones Fox as the leading cable news network.
          1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
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        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          He likes to be the center of attention, not comment from the sidelines or merely own the media empire from the back room like Murdoch. Also note that a lot of his charisma is derived from being in office. It’s not clear to me his base will see him the same out of it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          When people go out on top on their own terms, like star athletes who retire at the right time, many doors are open. I think people are underestimating the effects of even a narrow loss all around. He’ll milk the “unfair theft” shtick for a while but it’s not a career.

          3 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          I’m not writing him off. He’s more of a live player at 73 than I am at 47. Runs on pure bile which seems to act as an astonishing elixir of life for him. He’ll find some way to matter. It just won’t be the 2 obvious possibilities of offstage kingmaker in politics or media.

          4 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Michael Boudreaux

          True. The birther thing was a major kayfabe win. I’d expect something along those lines. Producer and booster of conspiracy theories. Maybe even documentaries like Al Gore.https://twitter.com/mkbdrx1/status/1324481815667761154 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Michael Boudreaux @mkbdrx1
          Replying to @vgr
          His whole schtick previously was tweeting about Obama though. He can resume that with a much larger audience (cult) than he had
          3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Typo, I’ll be 46 in a few weeks not 47. Anyhow, still no news huh?

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          Pace of nothing happening is beginning to accelerate

          3 replies 4 retweets 47 likes
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        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 5
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          If he wins with PA, it will be vindication of the value of technically correct and statsistically conservative strategy in a game with a long history. He bet on the boring play of rebuilding the Blue Wall that Trump breached in 2016. No fancy narrative. Just do the math right.

          2 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
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