The electoral college creates an interesting faux-discretization of a single scenario into many. Remember we’re now navigating a variety of scenarios and futures all within cone of Biden winning popular vote, which I think is already certain. It’s like aliasing pixelation.
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In case you’re not familiar with this line of argument it’s the one Walter Russell Mead has been developing for decades https://pmachala.people.amherst.edu/Current%20Politics/Case%20Studies%20in%20American%20Diplomacy%20-The%20Readings%20FOR%20the%20FIRST%20and%20SECOND%20Class/Mead,%20The%20Jacksonian%20Tradition.htm … https://www.hudson.org/research/13258-the-jacksonian-revolt … https://www.hudson.org/research/13010-donald-trump-s-jacksonian-revolt …
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Sling down no doomscroll tv
Also gotta reread this thinghttps://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/ …Show this thread -
Before Sling crashed, token Republican on CNN was arguing that the biggest outcome is rejection of far left. I kinda agree. If it had been Bernie on the ballot with AOC cheerleading, Trump would likely have won in a landslide. This is a major bourgeoisie warning shot across bows.
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While I’m sympathetic to some far-left policy priorities, Bernieverse vastly underestimates how much bourgeois middle values stability, even if short of law-and-order dogwhistles. This is the 800lb fascist-lite egregorilla++ we’re talking about. It includes Biden’s core.
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Even in countries that are not paranoid about communism, it takes a lot of oppression of a lot more people over a long time to truly activate a far-left movement. I grew up near the Maoist Naxalite belt in India. The cartoon antifa Fox agonizes about is a cute joke by comparison.
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Wow, Trump’s lead in GA narrowed from 370k last night midnight to ~30k now. 95% reporting. This is gonna be really close.
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Several people have brought up minimum wage as proof of far left policy support. No it’s support for more money for yourself when you make very little. I can’t think of a litmus test policy that would reliably gauge sympathy level for real socialism. Which I think is really low
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Don’t agree with this, but linking it in to think about more in my later lessons learned analysishttps://twitter.com/Stephen_Corwin/status/1324165872760557568 …
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This too. Don’t agree but interesting to think about. I think imagination *is* among the concerns to cater to. People vote for an overall emergent story, not a spectrum-auction bundle of policies.https://twitter.com/Stephen_Corwin/status/1324166026553151488 …
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This is an example of another anomalous feature of this election despite surface normalcy. Everybody is armed to the teeth including a ton of Democrats who are buying guns for first time. Best case: lots of used guns for sale after a peaceful transition.https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-30/gun-sales-are-soaring-and-its-not-just-conservatives-stocking-up …
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I did a thread on an outsider view of American gun culture in June when this arming of the populace was ramping up.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1267940553204760576 …
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Guns are exhibit A in why you must cater to imaginations not just needs. If you don’t, a dark imagination takes over. The narrative imagination abhors a vacuum. In America it also shoots at it. And sometimes the void shoots back.
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Ht
@Aelkus a read on what to expect on Trump’s litigation end game. CNN discussing it right now as frivolous desperate long shots.https://www.propublica.org/article/if-trump-tries-to-sue-his-way-to-election-victory-heres-what-happens?fbclid=IwAR0WG8L9jr1Meta-A19lHg-WNJv26xaiXfGfr4X2C3ie8SOPkQENZAl2mcE …Show this thread -
CNN says Biden team being super cautious and disciplined in firmly not gloating about either Trump or his supporters, or taking any bait. The afternoon statement signaled a clear intent to be beaker in chief and woo away non-core trump voters if he wins.
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I don’t think the mainstream media or social media is going to be that restrained or forgiving if Biden wins. Jake Tapper already described Trump’s litigation endgame as “flailing.” Otoh if Trump squeaks through — still a slim possibility, his holy rage will be unstoppable.
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Worth thinking this through since it’s so close. If he does win I think Trump will go Old Testament on everyone who is now abandoning him. Mitch on down. Revenge on traitors will be first priority of second term. Both GOP and Fox will be tortured for doubting him.
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Everyone’s written him off, but he’s definitely not done. Statistical weird luck and/or strange legal events could still hand this to him. If he wins I think after revenge, his second biggest priority will be destroying Obamacare as his legacy. Scorched earth.
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Arizona is getting back in play for Trump, Biden’s lead is slipping seriously.
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4chan view. Don’t be quick to react. Things could still turn around for them in which case they’ll be in kek heaven. And if Biden does win, remember 2016. An imploding reality bubble is not pretty no matter who it happens to. https://twitter.com/mothistopheles/status/1324037003428667392 …
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Yep, Trump is still very much in this game. His early switch to litigious endgame tactics should not be mistaken for actual weakness. The count is in charge, not his premature reactions.https://twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1324176831260594176 …
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Fingers crossed, but I’m wary of PA vulnerability to litigation. I’d rather see a win that does not need that. AZ and/or GA...https://twitter.com/akaashkolluri/status/1324187106818822145?s=21 …
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If it’s Trump, dark age If it’s Biden, dark age served coldhttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323294268438450176?s=21 …
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This explains everythinghttps://twitter.com/ibogost/status/1324071758782177281?s=21 …
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“Whoever wins” is a fun twitter search right now. Everybody is hedging expectations and trying to be antifragile
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I’m pretty invested in this election at Twitter level but there are a LOT more invested people in the ground. This has been one of the more surreal things https://twitter.com/mrdanzak/status/1324191985352220672?s=21 …
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An extremely new disease, Arizona Derangement Syndrome, ADS has taken hold. It’ll be done in a few days... unless it turns into Florida.
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Premature calls are really dangerous because you get loss aversion shock when it doesn’t actually work out. Last night AZ looked like it was so safe, Fox called it for Biden (in despair? Bracing for a shock?). Now it looks like the expected flip might be flipped. Flip-flop state.
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Commercial break: This portion of the livetweet brought to you by the Grand Canyon. Enjoy the greatest canyon in the world just hours from maricopa county where the fate of empires hangs in the balance an outbreak of Arizona Derangement Syndrome is underway.pic.twitter.com/bcV3sXuJFg
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Meanwhile in PA linear regression is the clear winnerhttps://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324202842484330496?s=21 …
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