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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      It’s tempting to cast Reagan as B-grade celeb POTUS like Trump but don’t forget he was a serious politician who was CA governor. I can respect that path. Kanye though has too much A-grade celeb hubris to go up a real learning curve, and like Trump, is uninterested in doing so.

      2 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Chris Clark

      “Attuned to aesthetics” is one of my strongest negative indicators for political office. I really, really don’t trust the judgment of strong aestheteshttps://twitter.com/chrisclark1729/status/1324109111621898240?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Chris Clark @chrisclark1729
      Kanye also more aligned with future trends given he's black, neuroatypical and highly attuned to aesthetics. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1324106376579145728 …
      3 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      My top 3 criteria for a politician: - Has at least my level of integrity - Willing to learn the work of governance - Is not an aesthete Note that Trump is an aesthete too, like Kanye. It’s just that his aesthetic is Central Asian Dictator Golden Toilet chic.

      3 replies 1 retweet 57 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      This is why I’m flipping the bozobit on the political process and going ancap. These 3 traits are going to be election-loser traits for the foreseeable future.

      2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Varun Adibhatla

      Note: merely having a strong aesthetic is not the same as being as aesthete. Being an aesthete means your primary world view is an aesthetic one. You want to see/create beauty on your terms. It’s the essence of authoritarian charisma.https://twitter.com/vr00n/status/1324112430662885377?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Varun Adibhatla @vr00n
      Replying to @vgr
      Integrity + strong aesthetic is needed for broad charismatic appeals to flip the fickle ones else you have Carter like puritanism which does not lead to viable candidacy
      2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Fox News has also called Michigan for Biden which is reassuring. They’re not doubt-merchanting this.

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Nate Silver and the Fusheruans are still in doghouse as far as I’m concerned. Polling needs serious reform. There’s far too much preference falsification. The “shy” trump voters turned out to be real after all. Props to Trafalgar even if Trump loses https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 29 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      What polling needs is neither Bayesian nor Fisherian pure paradigms but something that adds an anthropological narrative front end to the modeling. Stuff like “shy trump voter” needs to be teased out early and weighted right. Preference falsification rates need to be modeled.

      3 replies 0 retweets 38 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Turned on TV. CNN appears to have decided this is kinda over except for the lawsuits, and is now in reflective mood. Anderson Cooper is now talking to historian Doris Kearns Goodwin about lessons learned.

      1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      CNN played Biden’s afternoon statement. A sort of pre-victory pre-speech. Very presidential and soothing/calming in a 2015 sense that seems almost retro now, but he doesn’t seem zombie-like. The confidence-boost of winning so far and outperforming Hillary at least shows.

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Did not expect Georgia to be in play this long. It’s 50-48% for Trump right now. But Biden’s getting 70% of the late vote count from the suburbs right now. He needs 67% of the 180k left to be counted to win.

      3:19 PM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 17 Likes
      • Spitfire7500 Alexander Xenopoulos Phil bartender of weird Flailing_Upwards Cody Hausman Michael Ashcroft (21/100 YouTube videos) Varun Adibhatla Saki
      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          North Carolina not so much. Likely to stay red.

          2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          An exact 270 via AZ+NV would kinda be appropriate and an accurate mandate, but yes as an unabashed partisan, much as I dislike the electoral college, I’d like a cushion for a deeper defense of the legal drama.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Winning without PA is key I think, since it seems the most vulnerable to frivolous legal challenges succeeding.

          1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          The mix of urban+mail-in has created Jurassic World ending level drama. Joe Biden (played by T-Rex) is in overmatched standoff with Trump (played by Indominus). Will chaotic-neutral energy of electoral system (played by Mossasurus) rear up from water at last minute to eat Trump?pic.twitter.com/FD6nDU0ARB

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Commercial break. Этот сегмент живого твита спонсируется Владимиром Путиным. Пейте больше водки!pic.twitter.com/RHuYZI76Hx

          2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

          This is very niche but I don’t care.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1324134191483682816 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Venkatesh Rao @vgr
          The mix of urban+mail-in has created Jurassic World ending level drama. Joe Biden (played by T-Rex) is in overmatched standoff with Trump (played by Indominus). Will chaotic-neutral energy of electoral system (played by Mossasurus) rear up from water at last minute to eat Trump? pic.twitter.com/FD6nDU0ARB
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Goddamn Pennsylvania

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          The electoral college creates an interesting faux-discretization of a single scenario into many. Remember we’re now navigating a variety of scenarios and futures all within cone of Biden winning popular vote, which I think is already certain. It’s like aliasing pixelation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          An odd shtick nobody else could pull of with a straight face is Trump trying to halt counting where it would favor him and drive it to resolution where he’s behind. He really has no sense of the spirit of a competition. Atlanta commissioner doing a presser on scanner process.

          2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Quite a process this dude is describing. - invalidated ballots are tossed (missing/mismatched signature) - open, flatten feed ballot through scanner twice - if computer flags an uncertainty, human review panel infers voter intent to countpic.twitter.com/qtvLNghYUT

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Gotta say these people are heroes in the same sense as firefighters, healthcare workers. It’s thankless, low-paid, low-glamour frustrating work with a lot of angry people waiting to yell at you no matter what. This is why I believe in democracy. We invest thankless labor into it.

          1 reply 3 retweets 62 likes
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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Things tend to be valuable in proportion to the amount of thankless grinding labor it takes to make them work. In a way this would be an argument against online voting. The labor is a feature.

          3 replies 0 retweets 32 likes
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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Blockchain people get this and don’t get this. This is literal proof of work. If you designed an online version you should design in an expensive counting process. Elections *should* be costly to run.

          1 reply 1 retweet 26 likes
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        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Liberty

          If Trump loses, there will be a clear test of the popular remote diagnosis that he is a narcissistic psycho with no soul. If he grows a beard to process, he has a soul. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t. I don’t make the rules. The beard test is bipartisan and global.https://twitter.com/LibertyRPF/status/1324145916853575680 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Liberty @LibertyRPF
          Replying to @vgr
          You can't shame someone who doesn't have a conscience. They should teach the basics of sociopathy and malignant narcissism in high school so fewer people fail to recognize the signs.
          4 replies 1 retweet 46 likes
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        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Litigiousness goes with trumpcore aesthetic like PB&J. Though US as a whole has a rep for litigiousness, it is not a randomly distributed trait. I think it’s a Jacksonian-America trait. The language points to a subculture: “So sue me” “See you in court” “It’s perfectly legal”

          2 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
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        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Perhaps the clearest example of it is sovereign citizen conspiracy theories, ideas that income tax is illegal, etc. My theory is that these are self-soothing tales of agency poor white males began telling themselves in the 1830s after getting a taste of power under Jackson.

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          You grasp at legalistic notions of agency when you’re admitted into society under the letter of the law but not the spirit. When you’re granted frustrating access to the nominal power but denied access to the inner rings. Trump has that same feeling at a fractally higher level.

          1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
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        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Basically, starting in 1830s a *national* class emerged in the US whose identity was built around suing richer whites and punching down at still-disenfranchised blacks and browns. A superset of poor-white post-civil war southerner.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          In case you’re not familiar with this line of argument it’s the one Walter Russell Mead has been developing for decades https://pmachala.people.amherst.edu/Current%20Politics/Case%20Studies%20in%20American%20Diplomacy%20-The%20Readings%20FOR%20the%20FIRST%20and%20SECOND%20Class/Mead,%20The%20Jacksonian%20Tradition.htm … https://www.hudson.org/research/13258-the-jacksonian-revolt … https://www.hudson.org/research/13010-donald-trump-s-jacksonian-revolt …

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Sling down no doomscroll tv 😩 Also gotta reread this thinghttps://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Before Sling crashed, token Republican on CNN was arguing that the biggest outcome is rejection of far left. I kinda agree. If it had been Bernie on the ballot with AOC cheerleading, Trump would likely have won in a landslide. This is a major bourgeoisie warning shot across bows.

          3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
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        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          While I’m sympathetic to some far-left policy priorities, Bernieverse vastly underestimates how much bourgeois middle values stability, even if short of law-and-order dogwhistles. This is the 800lb fascist-lite egregorilla++ we’re talking about. It includes Biden’s core.

          2 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
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        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Even in countries that are not paranoid about communism, it takes a lot of oppression of a lot more people over a long time to truly activate a far-left movement. I grew up near the Maoist Naxalite belt in India. The cartoon antifa Fox agonizes about is a cute joke by comparison.

          1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
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        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          CNN back up, yay! Doomscroll tv continues.pic.twitter.com/oJhUaOruEn

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Wow, Trump’s lead in GA narrowed from 370k last night midnight to ~30k now. 95% reporting. This is gonna be really close.

          3 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Several people have brought up minimum wage as proof of far left policy support. No it’s support for more money for yourself when you make very little. I can’t think of a litmus test policy that would reliably gauge sympathy level for real socialism. Which I think is really low

          5 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted stephen

          Don’t agree with this, but linking it in to think about more in my later lessons learned analysishttps://twitter.com/Stephen_Corwin/status/1324165872760557568 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          stephen @Stephen_Corwin
          Replying to @ArchivesBoy @vgr
          The left right spectrum isn’t the issue. People jump all over for the right candidate. Messaging is the problem. Run a candidate that rejects establishment dems, supports a minimum standard of living, and acknowledges problems with big gov—they’ll do fine.
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted stephen

          This too. Don’t agree but interesting to think about. I think imagination *is* among the concerns to cater to. People vote for an overall emergent story, not a spectrum-auction bundle of policies.https://twitter.com/Stephen_Corwin/status/1324166026553151488 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          stephen @Stephen_Corwin
          Replying to @Stephen_Corwin @ArchivesBoy @vgr
          Also, cater to people concerns, not their imaginations.
          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          This is an example of another anomalous feature of this election despite surface normalcy. Everybody is armed to the teeth including a ton of Democrats who are buying guns for first time. Best case: lots of used guns for sale after a peaceful transition.https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-30/gun-sales-are-soaring-and-its-not-just-conservatives-stocking-up …

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

          I did a thread on an outsider view of American gun culture in June when this arming of the populace was ramping up.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1267940553204760576 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Venkatesh Rao @vgr
          So... thinking more about this mall-ninja white house syndrome in the context of American gun culture overall... some more thoughts on the role of guns in situations like this. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1267915370658009088 …
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          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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