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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      So even though it *looks* like it has demographic mass to compete, it doesn’t. It lacks the “sticks bound together around an axe” strength of true fascism. 49 sticks bound around an AR-15 trump (heh!) 51 loose sticks. Let’s not pretend it’s all electoral college distortion.pic.twitter.com/HZePAv0Sna

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Back to razor-thin race in MI/WI/PA. I’m now basically at peace with either outcome as democratically legitimate. The difference is in the noise zone. Yes if Trump takes it, he’ll do so gracelessly threatening lawsuits all the way, but he does have the mandate of the 800lb FLE.

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Note that the 800lb FLE will not return the favor. Win or lose, it will basically regard the popular majority as an alien existential threat to the body politic that doesn’t have a right to exist and needs to be disenfranchised one way or the other.

      2 replies 2 retweets 11 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      The purist-fascist core of the 800lb FLE (fascism lite egregorilla, portmanteau of egregore and gorilla for those joining late) will keep trying to lock down the electoral college system and courts, and continue to tighten its grip via vote suppression, gerrymandering etc.

      2 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      The more lightly attached shell around that kernel will continue to make excuses for the core, rationalize its posture via appeals to anti-communist scaremongering, downplay the fascism charge etc. None of this is surprising anymore.

      1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      I’d like to edit an anthology of short stories titled “Egregorilla Games: Tales from the global cozyweb underground”

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      Scenario planning inside baseball update. We’ve landed on the cusp of complex and chaotic. Everything that @nils_gilman Transition Integrity Project war-gamed out will now be tested. Recall that they concluded anything short of a Biden landslide would be fraught. Here we are.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323030163802660864 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      Cynefin actually models these well Clear: Biden clear landslide Complicated: Trump clear landslide Complex: Biden after crisis Chaos: Trump after crisis Disorder (center): Perma-unraveling pic.twitter.com/B0ZBmclQAN
      Show this thread
      2 replies 4 retweets 7 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      If you haven’t been following this closely btw, the TIP itself (a mundane, nerdy exercise in the sort of wonky workshopping that goes on all the time) got coded as a wild Soros-funded deep state conspiracy to prepare the ground for an anti-Trump coup.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      Upside from this election so far: 1. I invented the word egregorilla and the term 800lb Fascist-Lite Egregorilla (800lb FLE for short) 2. Finally figured out how to use cynefin in a practically useful way. I grok the diff between exaptive constraints and no constraints now.

      2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      I’ll admit now that I’ve used it meaningfully and substantially, I have a good deal more respect for Cynefin than before. Thing is richer than it looks at a casual glance. I was guilty of dismissing it too quickly as a lightweight, overwrought idea before.

      4 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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      On a personal note I feel like I’ve truly matured a bit in the last 4 years. In 2016 it took me months of Trump-derangement syndrome to come to terms with the election outcome. This time, it took me 5 minutes to become genuinely okay with the remaining possible outcomes.

      11:02 AM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 23 Likes
      • mutual Prasoon Julian Martinez A. Matthew Lind Taylor μ Brad Neuberg James Baker Andres Osinski Drake E. (he/him)
      2 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          And that’s the full range: from a relatively peaceful transition to either candidate or extended strife/chaos. I may face other psyche-management problems this time around, but difficulty accepting the truth-by-democracy isn’t going to be one of them.

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          2016 was extra-hard largely due to being an immigrant who had endured 15 years of immigration ooga-booga believing pain was worth it to move to more liberal country. It was hard to accept that at least ideologically it was no more liberal than India, and possibly *less* liberal.

          1 reply 1 retweet 38 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Jascha Wilcox

          Maturation is merely conditioning you believe makes you stronger 🤣https://twitter.com/jaschawilcox/status/1324065091180847104 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Jascha Wilcox @jaschawilcox
          Replying to @vgr
          Is that maturity, or simply conditioning?
          2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Another maturity win: I cleared calendar of critical stuff and plunged fully into doomscroll. Politics is not in my top 5 interests, but I’m too old to pretend my interests are above the gravity pull of big political events. I’m not Elon Musk. I don’t have better things to do.

          2 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          One of the reasons I’m not an entrepreneur, despite having many necessary traits, is that I lack the ambition to work on things big enough to hold focus-lock through big news events like this. Good litmus test. If this can’t distract you from mission, you’re a true entrepreneur.

          4 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          But this is also the reason I can be a consultant: I’m distractible enough to pay more attention to the environment than I need to, so I can sell surplus situation awareness/orientation to clients who are so focused they pay less attention to the environment than they need to.

          2 replies 1 retweet 36 likes
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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Ah news. CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden and looks like Trump campaign is going to call for a recount. The margin seems to be ~20,000 votes so not surprising.

          3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Covid update: dead guy elected in North Dakotahttps://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/north-dakota-candidate-died-covid-wins-election-trnd/index.html …

          1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Go home Portland you’re drunkhttps://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/04/us/election-results?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#with-protests-planned-around-the-country-emergency-declaration-extended-in-portland …

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Boeing Defense

          Commercial break sponsored by Boeing. No matter who wins you can count on the military industrial complex to continue building cool shit. And now for a limited time, free Nespresso coffee machine with every F-15EX.https://twitter.com/BoeingDefense/status/1323321728378957824 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Boeing DefenseVerified account @BoeingDefense
          Our F-15EX has the advanced technologies to take on the missions of today and adapt to meet the missions of tomorrow.
          2 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Aside: the commercial breaks are my favorite part of this livetweet thread. Trump campaign claims to have filed lawsuit in Michigan to halt counting till it has access to observe.https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_114cb9154af91ea8436b34d2a11a61ba …

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Celestron

          Another commercial break. Results in the remaining undecided states are brought to you by Jupiter, Saturn, and Marshttps://twitter.com/Celestron/status/1324079467678060547 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Celestron @Celestron
          Look at the detail the NexStar 6SE telescope can take of the planets. Great job, Juan Manuel González (@juan_manuel_gzz)! Who else owns a NexStar 6SE? pic.twitter.com/lsWec3Djn2
          3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted ***

          While waiting for real movement, a pseudoevent update: Kanye conceded I'm told he's a musical genius. I wouldn't know. But everything else about the guy strikes me as tedious and not very bright self-importance and I hope he slinks quietly off this stagehttps://twitter.com/platformpapi/status/1324083288361717760 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          *** @platformpapi
          Low-key sounds like Kanye to me 🤷‍♂️ https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1324044360380395520 …
          3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted ***

          Wishful thinking here. It's more than guys declaring themselves cool. When a candidate tries to claim victory it has a small but real effect on trust in the process. To declare victory before all votes are counted is to undermine the future of the process.https://twitter.com/platformpapi/status/1324083288361717760 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          *** @platformpapi
          Low-key sounds like Kanye to me 🤷‍♂️ https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1324044360380395520 …
          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Jordan Acker

          Ugh. Making the sausage in a democracy can get real ugly. Who the hell are all these people? I thought it would be more orderly "observing" by a few campaign reps from each side. This is a mosh pit.https://twitter.com/JordanAckerMI/status/1324072809283420160 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Jordan AckerVerified account @JordanAckerMI
          In fact, the ⁦@MIGOP⁩ has so overwhelmed the Detroit vote counting room with “challengers” (most who are not lawyers), preventing actual Dem lawyers from actually getting in. Sure feels like a deliberate attempt to try to steal the election. pic.twitter.com/pIZCzUB6VH
          3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Trump campaign now has 3 legal filings going. 2 in PA, 1 in MI, plus a recount request in WI. Legal full-court press. Biden team seems to have burned veterans of 2000 Gore/Florida shitshow working on it, so looks evenly matched.

          8 replies 65 retweets 251 likes
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        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          One of them is a supreme court filing to basically take over from the PA supreme court... procedural crap but the eleventh-hour Barrett confirmation will make a difference here.

          3 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
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        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Just because I’ve made my peace with all outcomes btw doesn’t mean I think they’re the same. If Florida endgame has gone differently in 2000, we might have been way ahead on climate action and possibly avoided Iraq war. 9/11, Katrina, and GFC would likely still have happened.

          2 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
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        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙉𝙚𝙪𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙢𝙗𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙙𝙤𝙧

          DDoS is a good metaphor. Both Trump campaign and irregulars are trying to DDoS the process with legal actions and “citizen observer” intimidation.https://twitter.com/beckness/status/1324095054558990336?s=21 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙉𝙚𝙪𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙢𝙗𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙙𝙤𝙧 @beckness
          Replying to @vgr
          What, really? This is Brooks Brothers 2.0. https://twitter.com/beckness/status/1324093498849742849 …
          3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
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        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          One reason I’m livetweeting this election is I want to have an appropriately emotion-charged strong personal memory of it. Which is possible thanks to Twitter. If this is a big historical fork, I want to remember it well.

          2 replies 0 retweets 41 likes
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        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Axios argues that win or lose the strong performance means Trump will retain control of the GOP and perhaps tease a rerun in 2024 if he loses. Well, the battered wife is choosing to stay in abusive marriage. No surprise there.

          3 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Possibly future: Biden wins but never finds his feet. Trump runs and wins again in 2024 at age 78 and rules a full 2 terms. Kanye win in 2032 and rules till 2040. And in the meantime millennial and zoomer social media celebs fight for 2040+ as planet cooks. This is not a blip.

          5 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
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        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          We’re in an indefinite future of the amateurization of politics. Career politicians with at least a bit of a nerdy interest in governance and policy (even Nixon) are giving way to Idiocracy parade. Get used to it. There’s no “normal” in the future. Just a churning of the weird.

          6 replies 4 retweets 35 likes
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        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Reminds me of the state of Tamil Nadu in India which elected a string of assclown filmstars to office for decades. I have nothing against actors turning to politics btw so long as they take it seriously as a different skill/job, not just another role to play.

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Luke Thomas

          Correction: apparently 2 term limit applies even if interrupted, so edit scenario above for Kanye 2028.https://twitter.com/lukethinksshow/status/1324103540118155264?s=21 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Luke Thomas @LukeThinksShow
          Replying to @vgr
          He can't run for two more terms unless they change the Constitution.
          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          I think Kanye would be an even bigger disaster than Trump since he’s smarter, more successful, and more messianically sure of himself. Like a nuttier black Reagan. Kim Kardashian as Nancy kinda fits the picture too.

          3 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
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        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Well CNN appears to be calling Michigan for Biden. We appear close to electing the Defendent in the legal battle that will drown out Covid news and discipline for weeks, probably leading to a solid third wave death count.

          2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          It’s tempting to cast Reagan as B-grade celeb POTUS like Trump but don’t forget he was a serious politician who was CA governor. I can respect that path. Kanye though has too much A-grade celeb hubris to go up a real learning curve, and like Trump, is uninterested in doing so.

          2 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Chris Clark

          “Attuned to aesthetics” is one of my strongest negative indicators for political office. I really, really don’t trust the judgment of strong aestheteshttps://twitter.com/chrisclark1729/status/1324109111621898240?s=21 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Chris Clark @chrisclark1729
          Kanye also more aligned with future trends given he's black, neuroatypical and highly attuned to aesthetics. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1324106376579145728 …
          3 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 4
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          My top 3 criteria for a politician: - Has at least my level of integrity - Willing to learn the work of governance - Is not an aesthete Note that Trump is an aesthete too, like Kanye. It’s just that his aesthetic is Central Asian Dictator Golden Toilet chic.

          3 replies 1 retweet 57 likes
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