CNN tldrs state of play succinctly: Down to: PA, WI, MI. Whoever wins 2/3 wins.
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I do appreciate the decade-long spotlight Bernie and AOC have maintained on the powder-keg issue of inequality but ceding broad political-moral authority to them while trying to maintain structural integrity under moderate leadership is a one-time, sharply time-limited option.
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If Biden wins, they’ve got 4 years to find a better equilibrium. If he loses, it’s game over now. Tactical skill at navigating the peculiarities of US politics can substitute for a vacuum of ideas only for so long. Either moderates come up with real ideas now, or the D’s splinter
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AOC is to the
#Occupy descended left as Ted Cruz is to tea party politics. The interesting diff is that the tea party created an opening for a kind of populist hijacking by Trump. I don’t see that happening on the left. The US just doesn’t like true left populism.Show this thread -
To her credit, much as I dislike her politics, AOC seems to have higher integrity relative to Cruz, but more idealistic fervor. Absent Trumpist entryism, Cruz could legit have won 2016. But I somehow think AOC can’t ride her twitch-stream to the WH without going more moderate.
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Even without the results, the fact that it’s this close in the middle of a disastrous pandemic and with such an extreme cartoon villain as incumbent means the Great American People have spoken and showed who they are on average: mildly alt-lite fascism-curious crypto monarchists.
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I am dismayed by that basic revealed preference of course, but it is what it is, and a democratic truth. Even Biden’s likely popular vote margin (win or lose) won’t repudiate it. The US has always been a fascism-lite country but is now open about it. Glad that’s been cleared up.
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I do still believe in democracy despite funhouse mirror distortions of electoral politics. So if this is the honest reflection of what the US is as a country, I can live with it so long as it stays lite/mild, and the ideological margins I prefer can be kept secure in urban cores.
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“When people show you who they are believe them the second time” — Maya Angelou 2.0
They’re not stupid, the Democratic mechanism is still the most legitimate one we have. You can’t force liberalism on an illiberal, thinking population. They’ve chosen who they are.Show this thread -
The one consolation of this democratically revealed social truth is that it confers natural immunity against a left incarnation of Trump walking through the opening created by Bernie+AOC. Stalin-lite will be held at bay by the paranoid fever dreams of the Hitler-lite.
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This means, absent oxymoronic emergence of moderate political charisma (been there, done that with Obama, but a repeat is psychohistorically implausible now) the only counter to extremist charisma trying to woo a fascism-lite-leaning middle from both sides, lies outside politics.
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Commercial break. This segment of the doomscroll 2020 livetweet is brought to you by my frenemies at
@ycombinator Politics is not the answer. Start up, cash in, sell out, bro down. And hire me for consulting after you get Product-Market Fit and land a series A.pic.twitter.com/TwazkrKn7EShow this thread -
In light of recent events, I’m going to recode Obama’s 2 victories as a triumph of appeal of monarchical cult-of-personality charisma over fascism-lite. Obama got coded as “one of the good blacks” Blackish virtue signal so long as no real change to illiberalism called for.
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Both coding voting for Obama as “proof I’m not racist” and coding voting for Trump as “defense against radical left antifa communists” are rationalizations of thinly denied basic dispositions. And you can’t blame disinformation/media bubbles either. This is who the country is.
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If you’re comfortable with this 800lb egregorilla in the room, you’re fine. There are three possible natural reactions for those who are not fine with it: turn institutionalist-statist (impersonal state institutions as the , turn Straussian (noble-lie programmer) or Third Way.
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I believe 2010s have demonstrated 3 truths: - democracy works (screw Thiel) - Straussianism doesn’t work (people aren’t that dumb, you can’t fool all the people all the time, you’re not saintly enough to lie nobly, there are no good emperors) - Industrial institutions are dead
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So your real political choices are: - Accept your new 800lb fascist-lite egregorilla overload - invent better institutions - invent a third way to be elite that’s neither Straussian nor institutionalist - score a mansion; aka secure a tiny personal zone of political agency
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Yeah this is a major faultline. Mercenary in the policy sheets, missionary in the charismatic streets basically.https://twitter.com/pixlpa/status/1324041539283156993 …
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Yes, even though I’m not feeling this scenario in my gut, it’s now intellectually a clear possibility. The 800lb fascist-lite egregorilla will NOT be happy if the institutionalists buy themselves 4 more years by a razor thin margin that’s vulnerable to doubt-merchanting.https://twitter.com/gemorris/status/1324040401393717251 …
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“Competent fascist” means media charmer who will pay lip-service to individualism. Don’t expect a Hitler-like figure. That’s for Germany. The “competent fascist” is a culturally specific archetype that you may not recognize till too late if you’re overindexed on foreign examples.
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A thought on the “popular majority” — the 50-52% of the country that is NOT part of the 800lb fascist-lite egregorilla. Fortunately it’s not an egregore in its own right. It’s a loose dissensus of a hundred factions united only by their distaste for the 800lb FLE.
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Natural, un-prefixed liberalism, grounded in individual curiosity, openness to experience, exploratory spirit, and divergent thought, does not cohere into egregores well. The part that does is called “classical liberalism” and is indistinguishable from the 800lb FLE at this point
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So even though it *looks* like it has demographic mass to compete, it doesn’t. It lacks the “sticks bound together around an axe” strength of true fascism. 49 sticks bound around an AR-15 trump (heh!) 51 loose sticks. Let’s not pretend it’s all electoral college distortion.pic.twitter.com/HZePAv0Sna
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Back to razor-thin race in MI/WI/PA. I’m now basically at peace with either outcome as democratically legitimate. The difference is in the noise zone. Yes if Trump takes it, he’ll do so gracelessly threatening lawsuits all the way, but he does have the mandate of the 800lb FLE.
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Note that the 800lb FLE will not return the favor. Win or lose, it will basically regard the popular majority as an alien existential threat to the body politic that doesn’t have a right to exist and needs to be disenfranchised one way or the other.
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The purist-fascist core of the 800lb FLE (fascism lite egregorilla, portmanteau of egregore and gorilla for those joining late) will keep trying to lock down the electoral college system and courts, and continue to tighten its grip via vote suppression, gerrymandering etc.
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The more lightly attached shell around that kernel will continue to make excuses for the core, rationalize its posture via appeals to anti-communist scaremongering, downplay the fascism charge etc. None of this is surprising anymore.
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I’d like to edit an anthology of short stories titled “Egregorilla Games: Tales from the global cozyweb underground”
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Scenario planning inside baseball update. We’ve landed on the cusp of complex and chaotic. Everything that
@nils_gilman Transition Integrity Project war-gamed out will now be tested. Recall that they concluded anything short of a Biden landslide would be fraught. Here we are.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323030163802660864 …
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If you haven’t been following this closely btw, the TIP itself (a mundane, nerdy exercise in the sort of wonky workshopping that goes on all the time) got coded as a wild Soros-funded deep state conspiracy to prepare the ground for an anti-Trump coup.
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Upside from this election so far: 1. I invented the word egregorilla and the term 800lb Fascist-Lite Egregorilla (800lb FLE for short) 2. Finally figured out how to use cynefin in a practically useful way. I grok the diff between exaptive constraints and no constraints now.
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