Remember in 2016 Trump won 304 electoral votes. That’s 34 votes Biden has to reclaim from somewhere. Looks like 11 in the bag so far, 23 more to go. Residual structural bias favors Biden (cities/mail-in) but Trump has more scenarios.
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Both pre-election polling and exit polling are psycho-WMDs.
Produces months of pseudoevent news.
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CNN tldrs state of play succinctly: Down to: PA, WI, MI. Whoever wins 2/3 wins.
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Le sigh this is getting close enough, I’m thinking it might end up in the courts like in 2000 even without shenanigans. The Florida recount took a month to sort out and this will be much uglier.
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Another big difference: highest turnout in a century. Likely around 65% which would be the highest since 1908. So even if the map and outcome remain the same as 2016, it’s not the same. It’s more of the same. By about 5% more turnout
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Alright I think I’ll turn in soon. I think I’ll be waking up to the following scenarios in order of likelihood:
- Legal wrangle in PA
- Trump win
- Biden win
- Cthulhucene
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Ok: actual last tweet for the night. Trump is on droning about play by play in states. I’ll catch up tomorrow if he lobbed any grenades.
Looks like prop 22 might pass in CA
Now to read a chapter of Iain M. Banks’ Hydrogen Sonata before shuteye.
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Ok no real movement huh. Glad I went to bed. Time for coffee and burrito. Here on out it will be intermittent updates only in response to actual movement.
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Looks way too close and Trump threatening legal shenanigans so I’m not buying an outcome until one exists
