This seems important.https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1323818411416145928 …
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So one thing is how little has changed on the ground despite so much change in the national consciousness. The map looks the same as 2016 so far, and it’s down to the same states: PA, MI, OH etc. Nobody in power has learned anything but it feels like I have. Same scene, new eyes.
The structural biases are so huge, a change in consciousness means nothing in some ways, everything in others. Now we know. The electoral college and gerrymandering are too much to overcome.
If you’re decisively left of Red America, it’s time to accept politics isn’t the answer. It’s merely a domain where you run interference to buy time to exercise other modes of agency.
The notable thing is: nothing’s changed for Trump’s America either. He was going to make their lives great again.
The nice thing is, this time around I’ve been prepared for exactly this contingency. This is what Project @basicmansion is about
A personal Second Foundation for a Dark Age.
Previously on the doomscrollhttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323775147044564992?s=21 …
Commercial break. At least our Dark Age TV lineup is lit.
Brought to you by @kneelingbus for Mayor of NYC. The mayor who will bring you the first Asimovian Cave of Steel in 2030.pic.twitter.com/i6aDUDWPr6
Things to look forward to tomorrow - Breakfast burrito - 50% reduction in scenario planning complexity for us futurists - Grand narratives are back. Dark age! - Can think long-term again - Great Weirding officially over, and into the Permaweird - Anthropocene Whiskey Sour
The long arc story for the last 20 years has been urban vs rural. Every passing year, city-state future looks more real.
Underlines why Covid is so huge. In one sense it explodes the geopolitical foundation of urban political power. OTOH thatvoower itself is demographic not location-based. it is unclear what it will mean if the urban world floods out into the hinterland like a dam bursting.
Biden’s randomly making a statement. Sounds confident and doughty. Rallying the troops saying he feels on track to win this.pic.twitter.com/lkPu6Udh8a
Weirdly hypernormal. This is unfolding similarly to every election night I’ve stayed up tracking since 2000. Yet feels completely different.
Since this is a livetweet of the election I must capture this inevitable inflammatory tweet. Now *this* is different from every other election.pic.twitter.com/Q9HLFDycCu
Arizona is possibly going to make it off my crap list. I’ve enjoyed all my visits to the state and it’s certainly good for astronomy.
So looks like in Michigan and Pennsylvania the disproportionate early voting by democrats might cause a sharp shift in a few hours. They’re currently lagging on counting those. So double blue latency: cities and mail-in. Question is if it will be enough.
Van Jones on CNN just made basically the same point I did a few hours ago, so I guess this is now a basic normie takehttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323814941040635904?s=21 …
But just in case you think nothing is different: storefronts all over big cities are boarded up and prepared for riots, several friends have left the country, and others are prepping go bags. Belief it’s not the same is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Naive to pretend all is normal.
There’s serious mechanism-complexity related uncertainty but still looks like Trump has more combinatorial pathways than Biden despite Arizona flip.
Remember in 2016 Trump won 304 electoral votes. That’s 34 votes Biden has to reclaim from somewhere. Looks like 11 in the bag so far, 23 more to go. Residual structural bias favors Biden (cities/mail-in) but Trump has more scenarios.
Both pre-election polling and exit polling are psycho-WMDs. Produces months of pseudoevent news.
CNN tldrs state of play succinctly: Down to: PA, WI, MI. Whoever wins 2/3 wins.
Le sigh this is getting close enough, I’m thinking it might end up in the courts like in 2000 even without shenanigans. The Florida recount took a month to sort out and this will be much uglier.
Commercial break. Check out the @yak_collective for all your dark age consulting needs.pic.twitter.com/22MwIAimmZ
Another big difference: highest turnout in a century. Likely around 65% which would be the highest since 1908. So even if the map and outcome remain the same as 2016, it’s not the same. It’s more of the same. By about 5% more turnouthttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/03/historic-united-states-voter-turnout-2020-election-behind-other-democracies-global/ …
Alright I think I’ll turn in soon. I think I’ll be waking up to the following scenarios in order of likelihood: - Legal wrangle in PA - Trump win - Biden win - Cthulhucene
Ok: actual last tweet for the night. Trump is on droning about play by play in states. I’ll catch up tomorrow if he lobbed any grenades. Looks like prop 22 might pass in CA Now to read a chapter of Iain M. Banks’ Hydrogen Sonata before shuteye.
Ok no real movement huh. Glad I went to bed. Time for coffee and burrito. Here on out it will be intermittent updates only in response to actual movement.
Glad Prop 22 passed. The gig economy is too important to be run by regressive CA labor politics. I distrust big corporation less on this. If a 7/8 supermajority clause and corporate moneybags are required to defend against stuff like AB5, so be it.
Also glad the Dems kinda got an ass-kicking outside of the undecided potus race. The party machine on senate/house was way too smug and self-satisfied assuming a strong positionhttps://twitter.com/auerbachkeller/status/1324004355629031425?s=21 …
I had a single issue of interest: getting Trump out. That’s still up in the air. Everything else though, yeah... necessary institutional reform. Florida should be a sharp warning for people supporting a far left push. It’s bad ideology and losing political strategy in the US.
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