Interesting to see the patches where Trump is outperforming himself from 2016. Assuming Biden is overall more appealing, it’s a measure of polarization.
-
-
In my totally scientific gut poll, based on tracking doomscroll visuals of I’m now leaning towards conclusion that it’s gonna be Trump. City-state world here we come. Siege urbanism.
Show this thread -
Was waiting for the right moment in this thread for the obligatory doomscroll gif, specially dedicated to
@scrivenixpic.twitter.com/dVWEfAGDRZShow this thread -
** spins up speculative execution thread on 4 more years of Trump ** Analysis starting point for me has always been: one term for Trump could be the madness of a passionate crowd leveraged by electoral college. Two terms is a cold, level-headed, decisive mandate for illiberalism
Show this thread -
Since India has also taken a decisive turn towards illiberalism in the last decade, if Trump wins, I’m going to officially identify as ideologically homeless.
Show this thread -
Okay my illiberal-world rest-of-life plan starts with building Dark Age robots.
Show this thread -
Not kidding. One reason I have gotten back into maker/diy stuff is that the mainstream of humanity has, for the moment, chosen the bozo timeline. Tech is a better bet for a meaningful life.
Show this thread -
Now that a landslide is basically off the table, it doesn’t really matter who wins. A narrow win would merely be a rearguard action to buy us more time, not moral validation/mandate for a counter-reformation. The world is clearly locked on its current course for ~50 years not 5.
Show this thread -
Implications - Climate action is now purely up to businesses - Avocado politics is the future. Wherever you see the phrase “climate refugee” read “climate war” - 100% of political agency for liberalism will come from control of tech. Like guild navigators. Spice!
Show this thread -
We are officially into our Dark Age. That’s not all bad. Cozy web renaissance. I’ve been exploring this potential future since 2013.https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2013/12/09/our-diurnal-civilization/ …
Show this thread -
I’m available for dark age consulting
https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/11/30/prolegomena-to-any-dark-age-psychohistory/ …Show this thread -
So one thing is how little has changed on the ground despite so much change in the national consciousness. The map looks the same as 2016 so far, and it’s down to the same states: PA, MI, OH etc. Nobody in power has learned anything but it feels like I have. Same scene, new eyes.
Show this thread -
The structural biases are so huge, a change in consciousness means nothing in some ways, everything in others. Now we know. The electoral college and gerrymandering are too much to overcome.
Show this thread -
If you’re decisively left of Red America, it’s time to accept politics isn’t the answer. It’s merely a domain where you run interference to buy time to exercise other modes of agency.
Show this thread -
The notable thing is: nothing’s changed for Trump’s America either. He was going to make their lives great again.
Show this thread -
The nice thing is, this time around I’ve been prepared for exactly this contingency. This is what Project
@basicmansion is about
A personal Second Foundation for a Dark Age.Show this thread -
Previously on the doomscrollhttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323775147044564992?s=21 …
Show this thread -
Commercial break. At least our Dark Age TV lineup is lit. Brought to you by
@kneelingbus for Mayor of NYC. The mayor who will bring you the first Asimovian Cave of Steel in 2030.pic.twitter.com/i6aDUDWPr6Show this thread -
Things to look forward to tomorrow - Breakfast burrito - 50% reduction in scenario planning complexity for us futurists - Grand narratives are back. Dark age! - Can think long-term again - Great Weirding officially over, and into the Permaweird - Anthropocene Whiskey Sour
Show this thread -
The long arc story for the last 20 years has been urban vs rural. Every passing year, city-state future looks more real.
Show this thread -
Underlines why Covid is so huge. In one sense it explodes the geopolitical foundation of urban political power. OTOH thatvoower itself is demographic not location-based. it is unclear what it will mean if the urban world floods out into the hinterland like a dam bursting.
Show this thread -
Biden’s randomly making a statement. Sounds confident and doughty. Rallying the troops saying he feels on track to win this.pic.twitter.com/lkPu6Udh8a
Show this thread -
Weirdly hypernormal. This is unfolding similarly to every election night I’ve stayed up tracking since 2000. Yet feels completely different.
Show this thread -
Since this is a livetweet of the election I must capture this inevitable inflammatory tweet. Now *this* is different from every other election.pic.twitter.com/Q9HLFDycCu
Show this thread -
Arizona is possibly going to make it off my crap list. I’ve enjoyed all my visits to the state and it’s certainly good for astronomy.
Show this thread -
So looks like in Michigan and Pennsylvania the disproportionate early voting by democrats might cause a sharp shift in a few hours. They’re currently lagging on counting those. So double blue latency: cities and mail-in. Question is if it will be enough.
Show this thread -
Van Jones on CNN just made basically the same point I did a few hours ago, so I guess this is now a basic normie takehttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323814941040635904?s=21 …
Show this thread -
But just in case you think nothing is different: storefronts all over big cities are boarded up and prepared for riots, several friends have left the country, and others are prepping go bags. Belief it’s not the same is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Naive to pretend all is normal.
Show this thread -
There’s serious mechanism-complexity related uncertainty but still looks like Trump has more combinatorial pathways than Biden despite Arizona flip.
Show this thread -
Remember in 2016 Trump won 304 electoral votes. That’s 34 votes Biden has to reclaim from somewhere. Looks like 11 in the bag so far, 23 more to go. Residual structural bias favors Biden (cities/mail-in) but Trump has more scenarios.
Show this thread -
Both pre-election polling and exit polling are psycho-WMDs. Produces months of pseudoevent news.
Show this thread - Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.