Conversation

Replying to
Realizing California is likely not long-term affordable for me and this election is going to be a proxy first pass on my move-to list. If it doesn’t flip blue this election it’s off the list. I’m too old to take on altruistic projects to help flip states by moving there.
6
62
Tried some CNN and was reminded how live TV is the OG doomscroll and about 100x more intense. Back to Twitter for a more peaceful stream. And people say social media fries the brain. It’s a waldenpond compared to TV.
7
187
Hmm wonder if the counties that flipped away from Obama are the ones that will flip back this time. Or does map of marginal flip-flop bits change each cycle based on events? I may want county-level flip-flop map to make my future plans. 80% chance I’ll be out of CA by 2024.
2
19
NYT has its dumb needles, CNN shows live votes in and relative percent but not % of votes in. 538 hides behind esoteric incantations. They can’t help themselves. Have firehose, will obfuscate.
5
41
How are exit polls accounting for late-voter bias? 🤔 Is there an equivalent of exit polls for early voters?
1
5
This is how CNN displays state of play on TV. The %-in bar is easy to miss at the bottom. Shows as a small corner box when talking heads are commenting, full screen when being summarized.
Image
Image
1
15
This is not promising. I have a feeling pollsters are going to be more wrong than in 2016. They’ve upped their modeling sophistication by 50%, UX sophistication by 3x, but the thing has gotten 10x harder to model, so tv doomscroll is more dumpster-fiery than 2016, not less.
3
76
If I don’t like the outcome of this thing I will go full-Taleb on pollsters and hold them in contempt for the rest of eternity.
3
122
Georgia and Florida not looking promising. Finger on bozobit trigger. In a way this time around I’m more interested in what regions I’m going to bozobit based on how they vote rather than outcome. Already kinda resigned to a likely Trump “upset” for pollster-believers.
Replying to
Nate Silver my man, your “plausible” hedges won’t save you from cancelation if this thing blows up in your face. Fusheruan statistics is as much on trial here as mediocrity and Trump.
2
64
Remember today is a a referendum on mediocrity. Enlightened mediocrity must triumph over denialist mediocrity.
Quote Tweet
Dunno how I didn’t notice this before... Biden is the clear choice of us mediocre mediocre types. Trump is for those in denial about their own mediocrity. This election is a referendum on mediocrity. Enlightened embrace of it vs reactionary denial of it. twitter.com/BillSeitz/stat…
Show this thread
1
39
Poll: Lets do a less grimdark and more hopepunk poll to lighten this thing up. If you had a billion dollars earmarked for exploration that you had to invest in one of these, where would you put it?
  • Moon
    10.5%
  • Mars
    18.6%
  • Oceans
    47.6%
  • Asteroid belt
    23.2%
590 votesFinal results
7
8
Interesting to see the patches where Trump is outperforming himself from 2016. Assuming Biden is overall more appealing, it’s a measure of polarization.
2
15
Well already seems clear it won’t be the blowout repudiation of Trumpism that beating Hoover’s 1932 margin of defeat (59-472). So my most favored outcome is already off the table. Dammit this was the one record I wanted Trump to own.
1
39
Poll reporting seems more like quantitative aesthetics than statistics. Like how investment firms try to price IPOs to produce a nice pop. Each side is sandbagging its own candidate a bit to produce a satisfying pop with the final outcome. Underpromise-overdeliver or some such bs
Quote Tweet
Someone tell the FOX and NYT needles to get on the same page here.
Image
Image
1
44
Owning this typo. I’m calling it Fusheruan statistics from now on.
Quote Tweet
Nate Silver my man, your “plausible” hedges won’t save you from cancelation if this thing blows up in your face. Fusheruan statistics is as much on trial here as mediocrity and Trump.
Show this thread
2
14
We have CNN on mute and wife is doing a pottery class on zoom so I have a surreal sound track going on that’s all about pottery techniques and commentary on art styles.
1
30
Ooh I know, it’s going to be the 2020 unholy grail. I’ll tell her to glaze it blue or orange depending on who wins
2
18
Another commercial break. Sponsored by the COP21 Paris Climate Accord, which can still work out.
Monty Python Holy Grail GIF
GIF
1
12
In my totally scientific gut poll, based on tracking doomscroll visuals of I’m now leaning towards conclusion that it’s gonna be Trump. City-state world here we come. Siege urbanism.
3
46
** spins up speculative execution thread on 4 more years of Trump ** Analysis starting point for me has always been: one term for Trump could be the madness of a passionate crowd leveraged by electoral college. Two terms is a cold, level-headed, decisive mandate for illiberalism
7
75
Since India has also taken a decisive turn towards illiberalism in the last decade, if Trump wins, I’m going to officially identify as ideologically homeless.
3
64
Not kidding. One reason I have gotten back into maker/diy stuff is that the mainstream of humanity has, for the moment, chosen the bozo timeline. Tech is a better bet for a meaningful life.
1
69
Now that a landslide is basically off the table, it doesn’t really matter who wins. A narrow win would merely be a rearguard action to buy us more time, not moral validation/mandate for a counter-reformation. The world is clearly locked on its current course for ~50 years not 5.
3
109
Implications - Climate action is now purely up to businesses - Avocado politics is the future. Wherever you see the phrase “climate refugee” read “climate war” - 100% of political agency for liberalism will come from control of tech. Like guild navigators. Spice!
7
122
So one thing is how little has changed on the ground despite so much change in the national consciousness. The map looks the same as 2016 so far, and it’s down to the same states: PA, MI, OH etc. Nobody in power has learned anything but it feels like I have. Same scene, new eyes.
4
46
The structural biases are so huge, a change in consciousness means nothing in some ways, everything in others. Now we know. The electoral college and gerrymandering are too much to overcome.
5
40
If you’re decisively left of Red America, it’s time to accept politics isn’t the answer. It’s merely a domain where you run interference to buy time to exercise other modes of agency.
5
112
Show replies
Show more replies