Writes “Indiana” in little black book under “places mother and I will never live in, and I might perhaps cast as Mordor-type location in a story”
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If I don’t like the outcome of this thing I will go full-Taleb on pollsters and hold them in contempt for the rest of eternity.
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Georgia and Florida not looking promising. Finger on bozobit trigger. In a way this time around I’m more interested in what regions I’m going to bozobit based on how they vote rather than outcome. Already kinda resigned to a likely Trump “upset” for pollster-believers.
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Nate Silver my man, your “plausible” hedges won’t save you from cancelation if this thing blows up in your face. Fusheruan statistics is as much on trial here as mediocrity and Trump.
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Remember today is a a referendum on mediocrity. Enlightened mediocrity must triumph over denialist mediocrity.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323745551758757889 …
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Enlightened mediocrity must win or the rabbit dies. This election message brought to you by
@sonyasupposedly for senate.pic.twitter.com/39QZgNiuaq
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Poll: Lets do a less grimdark and more hopepunk poll to lighten this thing up. If you had a billion dollars earmarked for exploration that you had to invest in one of these, where would you put it?
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New rule: any pollster who’s wildly off must go live in Indiana until the next election
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Interesting to see the patches where Trump is outperforming himself from 2016. Assuming Biden is overall more appealing, it’s a measure of polarization.
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Well already seems clear it won’t be the blowout repudiation of Trumpism that beating Hoover’s 1932 margin of defeat (59-472). So my most favored outcome is already off the table. Dammit this was the one record I wanted Trump to own.
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Poll reporting seems more like quantitative aesthetics than statistics. Like how investment firms try to price IPOs to produce a nice pop. Each side is sandbagging its own candidate a bit to produce a satisfying pop with the final outcome. Underpromise-overdeliver or some such bshttps://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1323814784119140352 …
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Owning this typo. I’m calling it Fusheruan statistics from now on.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1323805860183724033 …
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We have CNN on mute and wife is doing a pottery class on zoom so I have a surreal sound track going on that’s all about pottery techniques and commentary on art styles.
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After she fires this pot she’s making I’m calling it the Doomscroll 2020 pot.pic.twitter.com/tvcpP7hm8P
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Ooh I know, it’s going to be the 2020 unholy grail. I’ll tell her to glaze it blue or orange depending on who wins
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Another commercial break. Sponsored by the COP21 Paris Climate Accord, which can still work out.pic.twitter.com/1cV3i12Kpv
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In my totally scientific gut poll, based on tracking doomscroll visuals of I’m now leaning towards conclusion that it’s gonna be Trump. City-state world here we come. Siege urbanism.
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Was waiting for the right moment in this thread for the obligatory doomscroll gif, specially dedicated to
@scrivenixpic.twitter.com/dVWEfAGDRZShow this thread -
** spins up speculative execution thread on 4 more years of Trump ** Analysis starting point for me has always been: one term for Trump could be the madness of a passionate crowd leveraged by electoral college. Two terms is a cold, level-headed, decisive mandate for illiberalism
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Since India has also taken a decisive turn towards illiberalism in the last decade, if Trump wins, I’m going to officially identify as ideologically homeless.
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Okay my illiberal-world rest-of-life plan starts with building Dark Age robots.
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Not kidding. One reason I have gotten back into maker/diy stuff is that the mainstream of humanity has, for the moment, chosen the bozo timeline. Tech is a better bet for a meaningful life.
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Now that a landslide is basically off the table, it doesn’t really matter who wins. A narrow win would merely be a rearguard action to buy us more time, not moral validation/mandate for a counter-reformation. The world is clearly locked on its current course for ~50 years not 5.
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Implications - Climate action is now purely up to businesses - Avocado politics is the future. Wherever you see the phrase “climate refugee” read “climate war” - 100% of political agency for liberalism will come from control of tech. Like guild navigators. Spice!
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We are officially into our Dark Age. That’s not all bad. Cozy web renaissance. I’ve been exploring this potential future since 2013.https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2013/12/09/our-diurnal-civilization/ …
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I’m available for dark age consulting
https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/11/30/prolegomena-to-any-dark-age-psychohistory/ …Show this thread -
So one thing is how little has changed on the ground despite so much change in the national consciousness. The map looks the same as 2016 so far, and it’s down to the same states: PA, MI, OH etc. Nobody in power has learned anything but it feels like I have. Same scene, new eyes.
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Is there an equivalent of exit polls for early voters?