I suspect the effect goes away when applied to personal, instrumental skills in bounded domains. But in appreciative knowledge, systematic doubt goes up steadily, average confidence in what you think you know goes down steadily (though you gain pointillist confidence)
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This means people with arrested development who stop learning will have a permanent confidence advantage.
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Not that it matters since it’s confidence in assertions rather than actions. It does mean appreciative debate over perspectives is futile though.
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The more I learn the more I realize how little I know.
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I thought we had new empirical evidence on this and it turned out it was mostly not a thing?
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From the original Dunning-Kruger paper, this doesn't appear to be the case. Confidence increases monotonically, but the confidence slope is below the mastery slope. Ironically, this means that the common knowledge understanding of Dunning-Krug is an example of itselfpic.twitter.com/A2COLH5JHj
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