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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      Trying to get some stuff straight. - There are 200 types of common cold viruses. - 10-40% colds are caused by rhinoviruses, 160 human types = mostly spring/summer colds - 20% caused by 4 human types of coronaviruses, more winter colds - 20% RSV (1 virus, hits kids more)

      3 replies 16 retweets 113 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      - There are 3 non-common-cold coronaviruses that cause more serious illness, making a total of 7. They are: SARS-CoV-1, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 - The 4 regular coronaviruses are 229E (alpha coronavirus), NL63 (alpha coronavirus), OC43 (beta coronavirus), HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

      1 reply 4 retweets 25 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      - We don’t have a common cold vaccine because there’s too many - We don’t even know the cause of ~20% but they are presumed viral - Flu is more severe and has a vaccine because it’s only 3 virus families: A, B C. - All flu pandemics are from the type A, with the HxNy typology

      3 replies 6 retweets 30 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      Most of the endemic ones are mild/non-fatal because they invaded humans several thousand years ago and did likely cause severe pandemics back then. The evolved to be less fatal and human immune systems also adapted and truly genetically vulnerable types got culled effectively.

      2 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Shawn Pereira  💭

      Exactly what I’ve been wondering. What’s to stop corona from going rhino and evolving 160 subtypes and effectively DDoSing us with variety, BUT remaining more dangerous than both colds and flus? We’ve got 4 mild and 3 severe coronaviruses already.https://twitter.com/Incept_shawn/status/1317932857256480769 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Shawn Pereira  💭 @Incept_shawn
      Replying to @vgr
      I've been wondering about this lately. How many strains of the coronavirus will exist by the time a "vaccine" is developed? Could COVID-19 be a new, deadlier common cold?
      7 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      Note: a new Influenza A is still the most likely pandemic. So Covid19 isn’t even the pandemic we were most expecting. 2018 study cited in Pale Rider says 20% chance of 4 pandemics in next century, with high likelihood of one being a flu. 19th and 20th each had 2-3 flu pandemics.

      2 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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      Thing I think I misunderstood before was you can’t assume sars-cov-2 will eventually evolve to be like one of 4 milder coronaviruses (via a less severe type providing immunity to the more severe type and out-evolving it). That’s like assuming lions will evolve to domestic cats.

      2:29 PM - 18 Oct 2020
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      • knlae.dot Oxy Bruce Worden: drawerings lynaecook Johnny Sean Karabekir Josh Thuongvu
      4 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Lions and domestic cats have a common ancestor but lions don’t devolve to mostly harmless. Immunity to domestic cats (we can just physically dominate them) doesn’t give us any immunity to lions. Lions aren’t a pandemic scourge for other reasons.

          3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Interesting to consider the difference between a predator and a parasite. Small size and reproductive speed both matter. A lion is big enough that it can’t feed on you indefinitely keeping you alive. Let alone breed in you.

          2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Hmm there are only 45 recognized species of coronavirus total, of which 7 infect humans. For rhino viruses, there are 160 for humans alone. Possibly because rhinoviruses are among the smallest RNA viruses and coronaviruses are among the largest? Makes them less stable maybe?

          2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Sizes: Rhinoviruses: 30nm Flu viruses: 80-120nm Coronaviruses: 120nm but can range from 50 to 200 at extremes Smallpox: 300nm Domestic cats, leopards, lions/tigers, cattle. HIV is also 120nm range

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Hmm large mammals are actually a bad comparison. Viruses are as much smaller than bacteria (up to 100x) as insects are smaller than us. So we should map bacteria to predatory mammals and viruses to insects to get a better sense of proportions. Cholera = 2 μm = 2000nm

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          After all some viruses, bacteriophages, infect bacteria. Sometimes making them worse. Apparently the CTXφ bacteriophage makes cholera more severe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CTX φ_bacteriophage

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Lol, we’re just a sideshow in the viruses vs bacteria war for the planet . “It is estimated there are more than 10^31 bacteriophages on the planet, more than every other organism on Earth, including bacteria, combined.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage …

          3 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Wonder if there’s any home-grade experiments or observations you can do with harmless bacteria that don’t require an electron microscope and won’t bring the FBI down on you. Hobby virology should be a thing.

          6 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Walt  🚴🏼‍♂️ 🏗 🗽 🌎 ⚖️ 🙋🏻‍♂️ 🚮

          Hmmhttps://twitter.com/WaltFrench/status/1317956473322758145 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Walt  🚴🏼‍♂️ 🏗 🗽 🌎 ⚖️ 🙋🏻‍♂️ 🚮 @WaltFrench
          Replying to @vgr
          History for Coronas needn’t exactly repeat One way natural selection works is an aggressive parasite puts high evolutionary pressure on hosts It seems our innate immune system tackles most cold viruses well enough that our adaptive immune systems never train on even stable ones
          2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Trevor Bedford

          Hmm2https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628550563250176 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
          A thread on #SARSCoV2 mutations and what they might mean for the #COVID19 vaccination and immunity, in which I predict it will take the virus a few years to mutate enough to significantly hinder a vaccine. 1/12
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 18
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          From first QT, sounds like most cold viruses don’t do enough damage to require adaptive immune response (specific antigens). I guess first response stuff like interferon works well enough?

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        13. End of conversation

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