Trying to get some stuff straight. - There are 200 types of common cold viruses. - 10-40% colds are caused by rhinoviruses, 160 human types = mostly spring/summer colds - 20% caused by 4 human types of coronaviruses, more winter colds - 20% RSV (1 virus, hits kids more)
-
-
Exactly what I’ve been wondering. What’s to stop corona from going rhino and evolving 160 subtypes and effectively DDoSing us with variety, BUT remaining more dangerous than both colds and flus? We’ve got 4 mild and 3 severe coronaviruses already.https://twitter.com/Incept_shawn/status/1317932857256480769 …
Show this thread -
Note: a new Influenza A is still the most likely pandemic. So Covid19 isn’t even the pandemic we were most expecting. 2018 study cited in Pale Rider says 20% chance of 4 pandemics in next century, with high likelihood of one being a flu. 19th and 20th each had 2-3 flu pandemics.
Show this thread -
Thing I think I misunderstood before was you can’t assume sars-cov-2 will eventually evolve to be like one of 4 milder coronaviruses (via a less severe type providing immunity to the more severe type and out-evolving it). That’s like assuming lions will evolve to domestic cats.
Show this thread -
Lions and domestic cats have a common ancestor but lions don’t devolve to mostly harmless. Immunity to domestic cats (we can just physically dominate them) doesn’t give us any immunity to lions. Lions aren’t a pandemic scourge for other reasons.
Show this thread -
Interesting to consider the difference between a predator and a parasite. Small size and reproductive speed both matter. A lion is big enough that it can’t feed on you indefinitely keeping you alive. Let alone breed in you.
Show this thread -
Hmm there are only 45 recognized species of coronavirus total, of which 7 infect humans. For rhino viruses, there are 160 for humans alone. Possibly because rhinoviruses are among the smallest RNA viruses and coronaviruses are among the largest? Makes them less stable maybe?
Show this thread -
Sizes: Rhinoviruses: 30nm Flu viruses: 80-120nm Coronaviruses: 120nm but can range from 50 to 200 at extremes Smallpox: 300nm Domestic cats, leopards, lions/tigers, cattle. HIV is also 120nm range
Show this thread -
Hmm large mammals are actually a bad comparison. Viruses are as much smaller than bacteria (up to 100x) as insects are smaller than us. So we should map bacteria to predatory mammals and viruses to insects to get a better sense of proportions. Cholera = 2 μm = 2000nm
Show this thread -
After all some viruses, bacteriophages, infect bacteria. Sometimes making them worse. Apparently the CTXφ bacteriophage makes cholera more severe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CTX φ_bacteriophage
Show this thread -
Lol, we’re just a sideshow in the viruses vs bacteria war for the planet . “It is estimated there are more than 10^31 bacteriophages on the planet, more than every other organism on Earth, including bacteria, combined.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage …
Show this thread -
Wonder if there’s any home-grade experiments or observations you can do with harmless bacteria that don’t require an electron microscope and won’t bring the FBI down on you. Hobby virology should be a thing.
Show this thread -
-
-
From first QT, sounds like most cold viruses don’t do enough damage to require adaptive immune response (specific antigens). I guess first response stuff like interferon works well enough?
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.