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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 16
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    What’s the most extreme theoretical difference possible in electoral college outcome vs popular votes? How badly could a winning president lose the popular vote?

    8:59 PM - 16 Oct 2020
    • 24 Likes
    • Sean Karabekir Alphonso Boris de Pfeffel Mango Michael Chapiro Phil Pawlett Jackson Antony Stanley 🍃🪴🕎 dr. marijuanukkah 🕎🪴🍃 HankC IUnfollowedPostRats☭🌹 ian m hines
    12 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
      1. purple prose and logic‏ @kaburicrab Oct 16
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        Replying to @vgr

        Are you accepting scenarios where zero people turn out to vote in a bunch of states?

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. ian m hines‏ @imhinesmi Oct 16
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        Replying to @vgr

        iirc if 51% of people vote for candidate a in all the highest-power states (wyoming, rhode island, etc) and 0% vote for candidate a in all the other states, candidate a wins with low 20s% popular vote

        1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      3. Bob Kerns (No PhD, but I know what one is, WSJ)‏ @BobKerns Oct 16
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        Replying to @imhinesmi @vgr

        That's the algorithm, except for two things: 50% + 1 for candidate a in the high-power states and ... drumroll ... a turnout of 1 in those states, and 100% in the others. which gives you a ratio like 35:200,000,000 or something.

        1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Matt Lehrer‏ @mattlehrer Oct 16
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        Replying to @vgr

        Matt Lehrer Retweeted Dave Wasserman

        Something like this 59/41 is apparently theoretically possible:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1313346398520258560 …

        Matt Lehrer added,

        Dave WassermanVerified account @Redistrict
        Twitter contest update: congrats to @Stuart98_, who has won a free year's subscription to @CookPolitical by using our #2020Swingometer to draw up a (totally implausible) scenario in which Biden wins the popular vote by 21.3 million (!) but still loses the Electoral College. https://twitter.com/Stuart98_/status/1312180307840266242 …
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. mark safranski‏ @zenpundit Oct 16
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        Replying to @vgr

        If you like up votes in California and New York with higher than normal turnout but only phone it in with rust belt states, a lot

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Ronald P van Ammers‏ @parabanger Oct 17
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        Replying to @vgr

        I don’t think there’s anything in the federal Constitution about how voting should proceed, that’s left to the states. Why can’t California use a high quality survey to determine how delegates should vote in the electoral college. Voting problems solved!

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. RY‏ @MathiasRusted Oct 17
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        Replying to @parabanger @vgr

        What could possibly go wrong?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Raoul Kennedy‏ @rakurabu Oct 17
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        Replying to @vgr

        Raoul Kennedy Retweeted John Allen Paulos

        Mathematician Paulo’s weighs in (from 2016 ):https://twitter.com/JohnAllenPaulos/status/778706882059866112 …

        Raoul Kennedy added,

        John Allen Paulos @JohnAllenPaulos
        Electoral College: *Logically possible* that A could win with only 11 popular votes even if B receives 70 million. http://abcn.ws/2cuBB39 
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Ryan Buck‏ @plinkotvb Oct 17
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        Replying to @vgr

        With faithless electors you can just go all thr way to a president elected with zero votes.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Nils Gilman‏ @nils_gilman Oct 17
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        Replying to @vgr

        In 1860, Lincoln won the electoral college with less than 40% of the popular vote. Even if his three opponents had all combined their popular votes, Lincoln would *still* have won the EC. This result was what drove the political logic of Secession in the South.

        3 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
      3. Tony Gold‏ @goldtone Oct 17
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        Replying to @nils_gilman @vgr

        Interesting. We seem approaching that same breaking point with 2000 and 2016 electoral fails. Things are different now than in 1860. Both parties are co-opted so its hard to say how things will play out.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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