I think that this is an example or early skill development impacting player capability over their whole career. So each new cohort has the skills that were thought to be premium 15 years ago.
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I don’t think this is the case. See the other answers. Looks like a mix of expected value math and changes in defense rules.
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Seems like effect rather than cause though. I always assume talented people can mostly cultivate any skill on a priority basis, and genetics will favor the most advantageous overall profile (height in this case)
It was presumed early in the game that all outside shots were low percentage. Take a look at Pete Maravich for an example of someone who completely changed that paradigm...but it wasn’t worth cultivating the skill bc there wasn’t a 3-pt line.
But the 3 point line was added in 1979? So ~30 years before this shift
Yeah—I think Pete Maravich didn’t stick though. People had decided that outside shooting was low yield and so stopped. Needed a new event to trigger the realization in the new regime.
I don’t think the difference between 2000 and now is rules—Peja shot the same percentages as Curry but did it in 2000. He was just one of only 3 or 4 that could do it.
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Also, on skilled players changing skills over time: it’s extremely uncommon for players to materially improve their free-throw percentage over their career even if they’re a highly fouled player (eg Shaq)
I didn’t mean that, I meant earlier in career when they’re learning the game
Ah, got it. I’ll have to think about the timing of skills popularity and cultivation. I think I was adopting a kind of McCabe-Thiele method for it, but that’s so available that I’m a bit suspect of it now.
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