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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. John Bissell‏ @bysl Oct 16
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      Replying to @vgr

      I think that this is an example or early skill development impacting player capability over their whole career. So each new cohort has the skills that were thought to be premium 15 years ago.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 16
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      Replying to @bysl

      I don’t think this is the case. See the other answers. Looks like a mix of expected value math and changes in defense rules.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Brian Skinner‏ @gravity_levity Oct 16
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      Replying to @vgr @bysl

      There is something to this, though. As the game emphasis changed, the emphasis for early player training changed also.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 16
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      Replying to @gravity_levity @bysl

      Hmm.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 16
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      Replying to @vgr @gravity_levity @bysl

      Seems like effect rather than cause though. I always assume talented people can mostly cultivate any skill on a priority basis, and genetics will favor the most advantageous overall profile (height in this case)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. John Bissell‏ @bysl Oct 16
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      Replying to @vgr @gravity_levity

      It was presumed early in the game that all outside shots were low percentage. Take a look at Pete Maravich for an example of someone who completely changed that paradigm...but it wasn’t worth cultivating the skill bc there wasn’t a 3-pt line.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 16
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      Replying to @bysl @gravity_levity

      But the 3 point line was added in 1979? So ~30 years before this shift

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. John Bissell‏ @bysl Oct 16
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      Replying to @vgr @gravity_levity

      Yeah—I think Pete Maravich didn’t stick though. People had decided that outside shooting was low yield and so stopped. Needed a new event to trigger the realization in the new regime.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. John Bissell‏ @bysl Oct 16
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      Replying to @bysl @vgr @gravity_levity

      I don’t think the difference between 2000 and now is rules—Peja shot the same percentages as Curry but did it in 2000. He was just one of only 3 or 4 that could do it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. John Bissell‏ @bysl Oct 16
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      Replying to @bysl @vgr @gravity_levity

      Also, on skilled players changing skills over time: it’s extremely uncommon for players to materially improve their free-throw percentage over their career even if they’re a highly fouled player (eg Shaq)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Oct 16
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      Replying to @bysl @gravity_levity

      I didn’t mean that, I meant earlier in career when they’re learning the game

      8:57 PM - 16 Oct 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. John Bissell‏ @bysl Oct 16
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          Replying to @vgr @gravity_levity

          Ah, got it. I’ll have to think about the timing of skills popularity and cultivation. I think I was adopting a kind of McCabe-Thiele method for it, but that’s so available that I’m a bit suspect of it now.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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