I think we’re on track for this sort of recovery in the real economy. It’s at least a decade at this point by icu logic.
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I’m using a heuristic of 1 week of recession for every day in lockdown. So if this lasts 18 months, that’s about 10 years.
Heuristic is from ICUs for humans: week in recovery per day in ICU. Lockdown as society in ICU.
