I have a fairly solid record of my own thinking through 2010-2014, since that coincides with my most steadily prolific output period on ribbonfarm. But there are no throughlines there that I can detect. There's like 4-5 branches of stuff.
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The definition of “right side of history” didn’t change, though some people who were on that side either went pessimistic or determinate. In both cases becoming, as far as I’m concerned part of the problem.
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I’m pretty proud of how I threaded the futures needle in my software eating the world essays of 2015. I managed to hedge it just right and call out the upcoming fork in history correctly, though I didn’t make branch predictions. So the essays managed to not get cache-invalidated.
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I didn’t predict either the right or wrong future. I just pointed to both as possibilities and warned against one.https://breakingsmart.com/en/season-1/the-future-in-the-rear-view-mirror/ …
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The biggest thing I missed was which elites would lead a reactionary revolt. I was focused on fox elites (aka Bernie/inequality crowd), but the ones who led were the lion elites. But I didn't learn about the Pareto fox vs. lion circulation of elites theory till later.
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Kind make sense, since the 2013-14 milieu which I was thinking about was all techlash, inequality, occupy wall street etc., with Piketty being headline news. I expected a leftist-fox-reaction and got a rightist-lion-reaction.
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End of conversation
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