Poll: Has Covid affected your Dunbar circle (~150 closest people you know personally) and if so, how severely?
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Replying to @hyponymous
Not sure I understand the logic of this calculation...
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Replying to @vgr @hyponymous
Fatality% respondents report knowing someone in their closest 150 who've died. At current poll result, our collective pool of all our 150 closests is averaging about 9%*1.1/150 dead w/ C19. Which is 0.066%. Current reported US # is 207k/328M = 0.063%. Extremely close!
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Poll's now dropped to 8.8%, which (0.0645%) puts our own pool's estimate at only 2% off of the US official reported total rate.
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Better estimate: (1-x)^150=(1-fatality%). 150*ln(1-x) = ln(1-.088). x=0.0614%. So, running with all the spherical-horses assumptions, we're "actually" running about 7.5% off of the current reported USA-overall totals. Still strangely confirmatory!
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Replying to @DoTheWeirdStuff @hyponymous
Is that a logistic regression fit or something?
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Replying to @vgr @hyponymous
It's combinatorics: Let's say you & 1000 friends each receive 10 random marbles from a giant bag of marbles. Only 8.8% got at least one red marble in your 10 marbles. To estimate: What % of the marbles in the bag are red? Solution:
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(1-x)^10=(1-0.088). Solve for x.
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Each side of this equation (1-x)^150=(1-0.088) is the probability that an observer sees zero fatalities.
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I gotta start being less lazy following math steps This poll is a little leaky (my own data point was in India for eg) but I’d guess it’s mainly a US sample. It would be interesting to do this poll in all countries as a direct check on whether official statistics are cover-ups.
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