That’s just serious armed conflict.
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The last 3 options are not incompatible.
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I think the point of the poll is where it will end up they are all an escalation from each other.
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I don't think armed conflict can be considered a likely scenario. But it absolutely must be on the table. Which is terrifying.
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I think some of this is the natural bias to overemphasize smaller percentages. Almost all elections have clear outcomes, but given the rhetoric and some actions leading to this one, the other 3 options are *more likely than usual* but the first is still *most likely*
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For the situation to be worrisome, armed conflict doesn't need to be the *most likely* outcome. The likelyhood just needs to be unusually high. By this standard the Cuban missile crisis would have been a meh moment as well.
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