Suppose you operate at 100 watts basal metabolism, and 50 watts for comfortable work. You plan to do two 4-hour things today, task A in the morning and B in the afternoon A can go right and take 25w for 4 hours, or go wrong and take 30w for 8 hours. 50-50 B takes 25w...
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Your best case power output expectation is 25w for 8 hours. Comfy. Your worst case is 30w for 4 hours, 55w for the next 4 (assuming you continue to do A and B in parallel) So your stress level will be in response to 5w output beyond “comfortable”
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If you apply this reasoning to everything you vaguely think you’re going to do in the short term, your expected uncomfortable power output = distress level in anticipation It’s not power output level that causes stress but uncertainty in power output level. Here range is 25-55.
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You can expect a variable but deterministic power output profile above basal. For example, sedentary 25w for 4h, gentle walking at 100w for an hour, exercise at 200w for 30 minutes... etc But it’s the uncertainty band that matters.
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Replying to @vgr
Welcome to thinking like a competitive road cyclist... power curves are a pretty key training indicator. Strava models this, Hunter Allen withs some fundamentals: https://www.hunterallenpowerblog.com/2013/08/an-introduction-to-power-analysis.html …pic.twitter.com/bcdinwBf9v
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And then you can think about how much time you spend in each zone (distribution of watts) (also courtesy of Strava - real ride data).pic.twitter.com/ZzoEuvjexP
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Heh, I’m not interested in power curves per se but the relationship between power curve uncertainty, expected power output, and stress
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