Conversation

Kinda interesting how thinking on the KPI for Covid has evolved: - Number of positive cases - Fatality rate - Total testing rate - Per capita testing rate - Surplus fatality rate - Testing rate per positive test The last one is currently the galaxy brain metric
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The last one seems to be the state of the art. I read somewhere that you want to test at a rate that keeps the positive rate ~=<10% The question of whom to test at what rate (population, contact-tracing people, with/without group testing...) seems unsettled
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I think if you're sincere and pragmatic, what you're solving for is minimize deaths subject to a meaningful measure of economic hardship for everybody else (which is not the same as GDP or growth loss for stockholders)....
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Seems like we're finally getting close to the right model for measuring the pandemic itself (even if it is politically unlikely to be the charismatic vanity metric) but we've barely scratched the surface of how to measure the economic hardship cost on others
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Number of Airsafes per sqf of community spaces weighted by some risk factor will be the next one. Building risks can vary a lot and contact tracing apps aren't accounting for this at the individual building level.
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