Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Stalin is hoping airlift will collapse before winter and will demoralize Berliners so they cave to eastern control. But West has a secret weapon: new airlift ops commander William Tunner who, wait for it, is going to Taylorize the shit out of this! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._Tunner …

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Plane porn break. C-54 Skymaster Star of the airlift. When Tunner was done cleaning up the operation, they were flying 24x7 and bringing in more food and coal than trains before the blockade. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_C-54_Skymaster …

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Back in US, Truman facing an election year, and facing criticism of warmongering from his progressive party opponent Henry Wallace, who is in Stalin’s pocket (shades of Jill Stein? 🤔) goes behind Marshall’s back to try sending his own unprepared emissary Fred Vinson to Stalin.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Sideshow at UN. Allies get a resolution out, Soviets veto it. Some tedious messiness around Argentina chairing the council under pressure from both sides. Moving on. Truman wins re-election against Republican Dewey, in what’s seen as an upset. Winter has arrived in Berlin.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Democrats now control both houses. Truman wants Vandenburg as Marshall’s replacement but he wants to stay a Republican senator. Acheson gets the job. Berlin city council under its own competing elections in West and East. Communist goons trying to derail it. Planes still flying.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Despite eastern communists (SED) attempts to interfere and intimidate, Berlin elections are won by western SPD Social Democrats who form coalition council with minority CDU to be stronger vs Soviets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      End of 1948, 2B in Marshall Plan funding (20B today) has already flowed and production surpasses pre-war levels for the first time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Over in Europe, Marshall Plan boss Paul Hoffman bullies Europe into lowering trade barriers. Begrudgingly they play along and are dragged into modernity despite themselves. The UK is the most pissed off about it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_G._Hoffman …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Another lesson for post-Covid. Berlin city election, not Truman re-election, is the one to learn from. The bad guys are the ones a) trying to build a wall b) using armed forces to interfere in elections and intimidate voters. Good thing Berlin didn’t have electoral college.pic.twitter.com/G1s3t3CUvM

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      “Make no small plans, for they have no magic to stir the imagination of men.” — Paul Hoffman

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Today’s OECD came out of Marshall a Plan era OEEC, the org Hoffman bullied into accepting the beginnings of a common market by 1950. Barriers down. Payments union up. Brits unhappy. Seeds of Brexit planted. Also seeds of shows like Yes, Prine Minister. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD 

      11:42 PM - 9 Sep 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • micah.fyi Yef
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Stalin makes his own competing Eastern Bloc economic assistance plan, COMECON. With blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the economic assistance. It’ll just be Kremlin-directed Nazi-style bilateral barter. Hitler-Stalin economic horseshoe here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comecon 

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          COMECON evolved to extract for the Soviets not assist. They also carried away 2x in German war booty industrial equipment etc than was lost to bombing in the war. Russia suffered mightily in the war, but it’s really hard to see anything even close to good in Stalinism.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Meanwhile, back on early 1949, Gresham’s Law is in effect in Berlin. and bad East marks are driving out good Deutschmarks. Everybody is trying to spend away East marks which is officially at par, and hoarding DMs. UN gives up hopeless currency mediation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          With much US arm-twisting, UK and France agree to simultaneously declare East marks no longer legal tender in their Berlin zones, on March 20, 5 days after UN effort is quietly buried by a pro-US Cuban chair. Currency schism is done. And allied airlift has survived winter.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Shadowy negotiations begin to end Berlin standoff. Acheson emissary Jessup meets Stalin emissary Malik. Molotov out, Vyshinsky in. Marshall Plan triggers spy/propaganda game. Kennan shepherds early covert stuff. In UK, James Bond receives his 00 rating. George Smiley joins MI6.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          That’s it for tonight. This thread is turning way longer and more detailed than my previous ones.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 11
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Marshall Plan is up and running. Now Vandenberg clears the way for NATO by initiating legislation to allow for defense treaties and non-neutral peacetime posture for the US. He believes it was 1930s US neutrality laws that allowed Hitler to emerge. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandenberg_resolution …

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          May 12, 1949. Blockade over. Stalin fails to mess with Acheson via Jessup-Malik talks to stall the creation of the FRG. Kinda a whimper rather than a bang.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          We’re now in the post-climax. May 23 final foreign ministers council ends in a farce and the allies basically prevail. Berlin under an economic detente. FRG and GDR formed. Aging Konrad Adenauer takes office in the west. The end of the beginning. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konrad_Adenauer …

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Kennan retreats from the stage, cut out of the last act. Gloomy and moody, ultimately resisting the natural outcomes of his own doctrines. In a way both he and Stalin saw the beginning of the Cold War as a chess game and both lost. Acheson won by treating it like tic-tac-toe.

          2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          What led to allies prevailing was simple economic success in the West. The Soviets could not bear economic cost of holding Berlin hostage. As in 2 world wars and the Civil War, what won the conflict for the US was economics. Kennan never really developed an intuition for that.

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Kennan cuts an interesting tragic figure in this telling of the story. Object lesson for all intellectual descendants of kremlinology. It’s a futile nerd pastime beyond a point. Good for setting up the chessboard, but not for winning the tic-tac-toe game that follows.

          2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          This is why I have zero interest in red-string Trumpology. It just doesn’t matter past a very early point of diminishing returns. Like Stalin, he fancies himself a master negotiator 4d chess guy. In both cases the solution is to ignore and build actual value outside his domain.

          3 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Marshall Plan achieves 60% growth by 1952. Marshall eventually gets the Nobel. Total 14.3B in 1952 $ disbursed. UK 3.2B, France 2.7B, Italy 1.5B, FRG 1.4B. In today’s money, 10x, or about 130B. Or 800B as a fraction of GDP (1.1%). Not counting non-Marshall military aid.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Loooong wonky chapter on whether the Plan actually worked as advertised and eulogized, including views of revisionists like Alan Milward. Conclusion: it was politically decisive at a unique and fragile time under unique destabilizing forces, but not economically the driver.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          It is silly to view it as a pure economic intervention. It functioned yo prime the pump of recovery and preserve capitalist economies under the shadow of belligerent Stalinism. It had mixed results in creating US style economics, but it bent the arc of history anti-communist.

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          All the European recipients reshaped it to their needs using local levers, but it avoided post WWI Dawes plan errors, and arrested the cycle of reparations bankrolled by US aid. And got Germany effect was historic. Overall qualitatively priceless and historic.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          That spherical-cow economists doubt it did anything suggests economics is mostly bullshit. But the fact that it’s unique effects haven’t been replicated in plans inspired by it suggest its defenders misunderstand it too. It was a unique surgery not a general model.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Ok. Enough for tonight. A bit more left, but will wrap tomorrow.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Whew done with final chapter on echoes of 1947-52 in 1989-2015. Not going to review in detail since it’s not about Marshall Plan per se. But interesting commentary on why expansion of NATO and EU post-Soviet collapse made all the mistakes Marshall Plan painstakingly avoided.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The big lesson is that without acknowledging a historical Russian sphere of interest and thoughtlessly expanding NATO and EU with confused democratization goals pursued by a military alliance, is what has led to today.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Post-Communist weakened Russia has reverted to its historical mean: using Eastern Europe as a buffer to preserve a sense of security wrt to open land border with West that has been vulnerable since Napoleon. NATO expansion under Clinton naively assumed democracy = peace.

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          There was no Marshall Plan style economic component from the US and the EU had no interest in such a role wrt Eastern Europe. Way to pay it forward EU. Russia under Putin simply changed tactics to cyber and info war to keep NATO confined. Strategy proved wildly successful.

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          After Hungary, Ukraine, Kosovo etc, bang, he managed to Trumple over the US and own NATO. Props to the dude. He went from burning documents in East Germany to clawing back the sphere of influence that Gorbachev and Yeltsin lost. Total supervillain but at least a competent one.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Historical memory of delicate, context-sensitive surgery of 1948-52, informed by the careful kremlinology of Kennan (who foresaw problems of NATO expansion before he died in 2005 at 101) was lost in the US. Clinton made the fateful errors, smooth-talking himself into delusion.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The book ends with a loooong cast of characters section, text of Marshall Plan and Truman Doctrine speeches, and tons of data and photos. This book really badly wants to be a rich hypertext book.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          So what did I learn of relevance to Post-Covid? I’m tempted to say “nothing.”https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J6VjPM5CeWs …

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          We can’t try this in 2020. We lack the statesmen/women capable of drawing the right lessons and using this as meaningful precedent for anything. Post 1989 post-history suggests we learned nothing. The Marshall Plan was a rare, lucky success among schemes of its sort.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          And even then, the loose ends and 1990s aftershocks it created scripted out present mess. The Marshall Plan (intended) and NATO (unintended scope creep) eventually led, via a long causal chain, to Trumpism and even Covid response failure. A key cause can’t be a key to the cure.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          tldr of this live-read: If Covid-recovery needs a Marshall Plan style effort, we’re boned. Seek inspiration elsewhere.

          4 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        32. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info