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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      The occupation of the Ruhr by France and Belgium after WW1 for reparations defaults was part of what led to WW2. No matter how seemingly justified reparations are dumb. Eye for an eye logic. In WW2, the western allies fought a late battle to capture it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhr_Pocket …

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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Airlift continues as western parties fail to craft alt strategy. Soviets continue to insist on Potsdam framework, quadripartite decision on Berlin and rejection of currency schism. City needs 1400 tons of food, 2000 tons of coal a day. West also blockades industrial exports.

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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      A general feature of hostile geopolitics and international relations is rejecting all agreements except the most recent one that favors you. Since all treaties are made with imperfect info, if trust to perfect it breaks down you revert to last imperfect checkpoint.

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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Potsdam was obviously a mess of an agreement made in fog of war conditions. But it suited Soviets to entrench there. For US new equilibrium that allowed Marshall reconstruction over Morganthau pastoralization was better and control of Ruhr allowed them to unilaterally go there.

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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      The treaties of international relations are like a series of really bad patches to a non-existent OS. They reflect the power balance and imperfect information of the last time the parties were temporarily not in conflict. Very Hobbesian.

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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Clay is hawkish. Soviets can’t afford to lose Berlin because Tito’s Yugoslavia has just defected from eastern bloc. West positions B-29s in UK as a nuclear bluff but don’t know Stalin knows it’s a bluff because they are not nuclear capable and his spy MacLean has told him.

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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Sidebar: I wanted to read this book since I thought it would be salient to post-Covid reconstruction. It is and isn’t. Marshall Plan was less reconstruction, more a retcon of WW2 endgame into Cold War opening and a NATO bootstrap. But maybe Covid too is an inter-war thing too.

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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      If so, what was the World War leading up to Covid and what is the Cold War we’re segueing into? “Europe reconstruction” = “climate” The rest of the mapping is murky af. Anyway back to the story.

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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Failed attempt to resolve impasse as western ambassadors meet Stalin. Both sides misread other. West Germany is starting to recovery and heading towards forming a government in Bonn. Stalin is desperate to stop it. West is desperate because ground situation in Berlin is explosive

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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      The extent to which this is directly an economic regime mismatch coming to a head in a literal currency war leading to physical conflict 🤯 I hadn’t realized the extent to which the blockade and airlift were sideshows to a currency/economic conflict triggered by Marshall Plan.

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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      This is Stalin’s last ditch attempt to stop West Germany from forming. He doesn’t have strong hopes of succeeding and is actually playing for full control of Berlin as consolation prize. But most Berliners hate the idea and desperate to stay with the West. Riots, etc.

      10:36 PM - 9 Sep 2020
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Again parallels to post-Covid. Different plans will have different success rates, creating tectonic pressures at interface points. Where are Berlins of today, vulnerable to post-Covid economic schisms? We’ve already seen Blue governors/mayors vs Trump+Mitch fiscal battles.

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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Stalin is hoping airlift will collapse before winter and will demoralize Berliners so they cave to eastern control. But West has a secret weapon: new airlift ops commander William Tunner who, wait for it, is going to Taylorize the shit out of this! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._Tunner …

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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Plane porn break. C-54 Skymaster Star of the airlift. When Tunner was done cleaning up the operation, they were flying 24x7 and bringing in more food and coal than trains before the blockade. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_C-54_Skymaster …

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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Back in US, Truman facing an election year, and facing criticism of warmongering from his progressive party opponent Henry Wallace, who is in Stalin’s pocket (shades of Jill Stein? 🤔) goes behind Marshall’s back to try sending his own unprepared emissary Fred Vinson to Stalin.

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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Sideshow at UN. Allies get a resolution out, Soviets veto it. Some tedious messiness around Argentina chairing the council under pressure from both sides. Moving on. Truman wins re-election against Republican Dewey, in what’s seen as an upset. Winter has arrived in Berlin.

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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Democrats now control both houses. Truman wants Vandenburg as Marshall’s replacement but he wants to stay a Republican senator. Acheson gets the job. Berlin city council under its own competing elections in West and East. Communist goons trying to derail it. Planes still flying.

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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Despite eastern communists (SED) attempts to interfere and intimidate, Berlin elections are won by western SPD Social Democrats who form coalition council with minority CDU to be stronger vs Soviets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany …

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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          End of 1948, 2B in Marshall Plan funding (20B today) has already flowed and production surpasses pre-war levels for the first time.

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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Over in Europe, Marshall Plan boss Paul Hoffman bullies Europe into lowering trade barriers. Begrudgingly they play along and are dragged into modernity despite themselves. The UK is the most pissed off about it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_G._Hoffman …

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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Another lesson for post-Covid. Berlin city election, not Truman re-election, is the one to learn from. The bad guys are the ones a) trying to build a wall b) using armed forces to interfere in elections and intimidate voters. Good thing Berlin didn’t have electoral college.pic.twitter.com/G1s3t3CUvM

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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          “Make no small plans, for they have no magic to stir the imagination of men.” — Paul Hoffman

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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Today’s OECD came out of Marshall a Plan era OEEC, the org Hoffman bullied into accepting the beginnings of a common market by 1950. Barriers down. Payments union up. Brits unhappy. Seeds of Brexit planted. Also seeds of shows like Yes, Prine Minister. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD 

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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Stalin makes his own competing Eastern Bloc economic assistance plan, COMECON. With blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the economic assistance. It’ll just be Kremlin-directed Nazi-style bilateral barter. Hitler-Stalin economic horseshoe here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comecon 

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        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          COMECON evolved to extract for the Soviets not assist. They also carried away 2x in German war booty industrial equipment etc than was lost to bombing in the war. Russia suffered mightily in the war, but it’s really hard to see anything even close to good in Stalinism.

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        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Meanwhile, back on early 1949, Gresham’s Law is in effect in Berlin. and bad East marks are driving out good Deutschmarks. Everybody is trying to spend away East marks which is officially at par, and hoarding DMs. UN gives up hopeless currency mediation.

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        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
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          With much US arm-twisting, UK and France agree to simultaneously declare East marks no longer legal tender in their Berlin zones, on March 20, 5 days after UN effort is quietly buried by a pro-US Cuban chair. Currency schism is done. And allied airlift has survived winter.

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        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
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          Shadowy negotiations begin to end Berlin standoff. Acheson emissary Jessup meets Stalin emissary Malik. Molotov out, Vyshinsky in. Marshall Plan triggers spy/propaganda game. Kennan shepherds early covert stuff. In UK, James Bond receives his 00 rating. George Smiley joins MI6.

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        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
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          That’s it for tonight. This thread is turning way longer and more detailed than my previous ones.

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        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 11
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          Marshall Plan is up and running. Now Vandenberg clears the way for NATO by initiating legislation to allow for defense treaties and non-neutral peacetime posture for the US. He believes it was 1930s US neutrality laws that allowed Hitler to emerge. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandenberg_resolution …

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        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          May 12, 1949. Blockade over. Stalin fails to mess with Acheson via Jessup-Malik talks to stall the creation of the FRG. Kinda a whimper rather than a bang.

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        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          We’re now in the post-climax. May 23 final foreign ministers council ends in a farce and the allies basically prevail. Berlin under an economic detente. FRG and GDR formed. Aging Konrad Adenauer takes office in the west. The end of the beginning. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konrad_Adenauer …

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        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          Kennan retreats from the stage, cut out of the last act. Gloomy and moody, ultimately resisting the natural outcomes of his own doctrines. In a way both he and Stalin saw the beginning of the Cold War as a chess game and both lost. Acheson won by treating it like tic-tac-toe.

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        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          What led to allies prevailing was simple economic success in the West. The Soviets could not bear economic cost of holding Berlin hostage. As in 2 world wars and the Civil War, what won the conflict for the US was economics. Kennan never really developed an intuition for that.

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        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          Kennan cuts an interesting tragic figure in this telling of the story. Object lesson for all intellectual descendants of kremlinology. It’s a futile nerd pastime beyond a point. Good for setting up the chessboard, but not for winning the tic-tac-toe game that follows.

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        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          This is why I have zero interest in red-string Trumpology. It just doesn’t matter past a very early point of diminishing returns. Like Stalin, he fancies himself a master negotiator 4d chess guy. In both cases the solution is to ignore and build actual value outside his domain.

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        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          Marshall Plan achieves 60% growth by 1952. Marshall eventually gets the Nobel. Total 14.3B in 1952 $ disbursed. UK 3.2B, France 2.7B, Italy 1.5B, FRG 1.4B. In today’s money, 10x, or about 130B. Or 800B as a fraction of GDP (1.1%). Not counting non-Marshall military aid.

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        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          Loooong wonky chapter on whether the Plan actually worked as advertised and eulogized, including views of revisionists like Alan Milward. Conclusion: it was politically decisive at a unique and fragile time under unique destabilizing forces, but not economically the driver.

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        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          It is silly to view it as a pure economic intervention. It functioned yo prime the pump of recovery and preserve capitalist economies under the shadow of belligerent Stalinism. It had mixed results in creating US style economics, but it bent the arc of history anti-communist.

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        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          All the European recipients reshaped it to their needs using local levers, but it avoided post WWI Dawes plan errors, and arrested the cycle of reparations bankrolled by US aid. And got Germany effect was historic. Overall qualitatively priceless and historic.

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        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 12
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          That spherical-cow economists doubt it did anything suggests economics is mostly bullshit. But the fact that it’s unique effects haven’t been replicated in plans inspired by it suggest its defenders misunderstand it too. It was a unique surgery not a general model.

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