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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
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      Bill passes Senate finally in March. Now growing tension as Soviet posture grows more aggressive. Opinion forming that the Marshall Plan by itself would be futile without military build-up. France cajoled into joining bizonia, so now stage set for West Germany to form.

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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
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      Stalin starts spiral that will turn into the Berlin siege, using various excuses of terror threats etc. Fatefully they leave air travel due to an air collision incident between a Russian fighter and a British civilian aircraft over Berlin, and perhaps not wanting more such.

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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
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      House passes bill on March 31, incl. extra 900m for military aid to Greece and Turkey, and aid to China. April 2, 1948, Economic Cooperation Act/Foreign Assistance Act passes both houses. April 3, Truman signs into law. Part of rush was commie threat in April 18 Italy elections

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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
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      Italian communists get booed in election, support for US is high. Communists+socialists drop from 40% to 31% of seats. Pro-US coalition gets absolute majority. West gets Italy. Wonder how world would be if Patton had detoured to Prague, but bill had been delayed, losing Italy.

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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Interesting. The US shared the plates for “occupation marks” with Soviets who promptly printed 8x as many as the US did, creating mini-inflation crisis. Luckily they were distinguishable by a dash in the serial number so the West could monetarily separate the two layer.

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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      The siege of Berlin was as much about the Soviets trying to gain control of monetary system by killing free commerce as about anything else. They printed as much money as the Nazis did, but did not allow convertibility to roubles for their soldiers.

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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Economic integration was never There was underground arbitrage: US soldiers would sell things like $4 watches to Rysdysn soldiers for 10,000 marks, then redeem at official rate of 10:1 and clear a$996 profit. The mess cost US 6.75B in today’s money. Or 675m then? Much Catch-22

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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      West forks off the Deutschmark which Soviets ban in Berlin. Siege on by May 18. I had no idea this currency fork was such a big part of the story.

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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      The Berlin Magistrat votes to restrict Soviet marks to East Berlin. Soviets bring in communist mobs to beat up those who voted for the West. Both sides introduce their own notes. Train turned back at border. This feels like a real version of the CHAZ/CHOP Seattle nonsense.

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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Aside: this kind of shit could easily happen in the US now. It would just be more sophisticated and involve muni bonds or something if feds and states/cities have breakdown. Currency shenanigans are a big marker of systemic breakdown. See also Indian demonetization.

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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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      Russian commander Sokolovsky begins siege proper, moving divisions into position, cutting off electricity, putting up barrage balloons. On the American side, Lucius Clay begins the famous airlift. 480 flights a day landing by June, one every 3 minutes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Sokolovsky …

      12:25 AM - 9 Sep 2020
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Everyone ready for bedtime story? Alright so Clay Rabbit and Sokolovsky Rabbit are fighting over Berlin and have banned each other’s currency. Deutschmarks are trading 1:4 against East marks. It’s a mess even without Softbank around to play games.

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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          A lot of this story revolves around US-UK physical control of Ruhr. Everybody wanted a piece of that to feature in their story. France wanted it internationalized to use it to reindustrialize. Soviets wanted Germany intact so they’d have a claim on it. Reparations golden goose.

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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          The occupation of the Ruhr by France and Belgium after WW1 for reparations defaults was part of what led to WW2. No matter how seemingly justified reparations are dumb. Eye for an eye logic. In WW2, the western allies fought a late battle to capture it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhr_Pocket …

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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Airlift continues as western parties fail to craft alt strategy. Soviets continue to insist on Potsdam framework, quadripartite decision on Berlin and rejection of currency schism. City needs 1400 tons of food, 2000 tons of coal a day. West also blockades industrial exports.

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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          A general feature of hostile geopolitics and international relations is rejecting all agreements except the most recent one that favors you. Since all treaties are made with imperfect info, if trust to perfect it breaks down you revert to last imperfect checkpoint.

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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Potsdam was obviously a mess of an agreement made in fog of war conditions. But it suited Soviets to entrench there. For US new equilibrium that allowed Marshall reconstruction over Morganthau pastoralization was better and control of Ruhr allowed them to unilaterally go there.

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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          The treaties of international relations are like a series of really bad patches to a non-existent OS. They reflect the power balance and imperfect information of the last time the parties were temporarily not in conflict. Very Hobbesian.

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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Clay is hawkish. Soviets can’t afford to lose Berlin because Tito’s Yugoslavia has just defected from eastern bloc. West positions B-29s in UK as a nuclear bluff but don’t know Stalin knows it’s a bluff because they are not nuclear capable and his spy MacLean has told him.

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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Sidebar: I wanted to read this book since I thought it would be salient to post-Covid reconstruction. It is and isn’t. Marshall Plan was less reconstruction, more a retcon of WW2 endgame into Cold War opening and a NATO bootstrap. But maybe Covid too is an inter-war thing too.

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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          If so, what was the World War leading up to Covid and what is the Cold War we’re segueing into? “Europe reconstruction” = “climate” The rest of the mapping is murky af. Anyway back to the story.

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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Failed attempt to resolve impasse as western ambassadors meet Stalin. Both sides misread other. West Germany is starting to recovery and heading towards forming a government in Bonn. Stalin is desperate to stop it. West is desperate because ground situation in Berlin is explosive

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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          The extent to which this is directly an economic regime mismatch coming to a head in a literal currency war leading to physical conflict 🤯 I hadn’t realized the extent to which the blockade and airlift were sideshows to a currency/economic conflict triggered by Marshall Plan.

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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          This is Stalin’s last ditch attempt to stop West Germany from forming. He doesn’t have strong hopes of succeeding and is actually playing for full control of Berlin as consolation prize. But most Berliners hate the idea and desperate to stay with the West. Riots, etc.

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        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Again parallels to post-Covid. Different plans will have different success rates, creating tectonic pressures at interface points. Where are Berlins of today, vulnerable to post-Covid economic schisms? We’ve already seen Blue governors/mayors vs Trump+Mitch fiscal battles.

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        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Stalin is hoping airlift will collapse before winter and will demoralize Berliners so they cave to eastern control. But West has a secret weapon: new airlift ops commander William Tunner who, wait for it, is going to Taylorize the shit out of this! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._Tunner …

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        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Plane porn break. C-54 Skymaster Star of the airlift. When Tunner was done cleaning up the operation, they were flying 24x7 and bringing in more food and coal than trains before the blockade. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_C-54_Skymaster …

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        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Back in US, Truman facing an election year, and facing criticism of warmongering from his progressive party opponent Henry Wallace, who is in Stalin’s pocket (shades of Jill Stein? 🤔) goes behind Marshall’s back to try sending his own unprepared emissary Fred Vinson to Stalin.

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        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Sideshow at UN. Allies get a resolution out, Soviets veto it. Some tedious messiness around Argentina chairing the council under pressure from both sides. Moving on. Truman wins re-election against Republican Dewey, in what’s seen as an upset. Winter has arrived in Berlin.

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        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Democrats now control both houses. Truman wants Vandenburg as Marshall’s replacement but he wants to stay a Republican senator. Acheson gets the job. Berlin city council under its own competing elections in West and East. Communist goons trying to derail it. Planes still flying.

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        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Despite eastern communists (SED) attempts to interfere and intimidate, Berlin elections are won by western SPD Social Democrats who form coalition council with minority CDU to be stronger vs Soviets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany …

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        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          End of 1948, 2B in Marshall Plan funding (20B today) has already flowed and production surpasses pre-war levels for the first time.

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        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Over in Europe, Marshall Plan boss Paul Hoffman bullies Europe into lowering trade barriers. Begrudgingly they play along and are dragged into modernity despite themselves. The UK is the most pissed off about it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_G._Hoffman …

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        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Another lesson for post-Covid. Berlin city election, not Truman re-election, is the one to learn from. The bad guys are the ones a) trying to build a wall b) using armed forces to interfere in elections and intimidate voters. Good thing Berlin didn’t have electoral college.pic.twitter.com/G1s3t3CUvM

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        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          “Make no small plans, for they have no magic to stir the imagination of men.” — Paul Hoffman

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        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Today’s OECD came out of Marshall a Plan era OEEC, the org Hoffman bullied into accepting the beginnings of a common market by 1950. Barriers down. Payments union up. Brits unhappy. Seeds of Brexit planted. Also seeds of shows like Yes, Prine Minister. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD 

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        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Stalin makes his own competing Eastern Bloc economic assistance plan, COMECON. With blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the economic assistance. It’ll just be Kremlin-directed Nazi-style bilateral barter. Hitler-Stalin economic horseshoe here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comecon 

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        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          COMECON evolved to extract for the Soviets not assist. They also carried away 2x in German war booty industrial equipment etc than was lost to bombing in the war. Russia suffered mightily in the war, but it’s really hard to see anything even close to good in Stalinism.

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        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
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          Meanwhile, back on early 1949, Gresham’s Law is in effect in Berlin. and bad East marks are driving out good Deutschmarks. Everybody is trying to spend away East marks which is officially at par, and hoarding DMs. UN gives up hopeless currency mediation.

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        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
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          With much US arm-twisting, UK and France agree to simultaneously declare East marks no longer legal tender in their Berlin zones, on March 20, 5 days after UN effort is quietly buried by a pro-US Cuban chair. Currency schism is done. And allied airlift has survived winter.

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        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 10
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          Shadowy negotiations begin to end Berlin standoff. Acheson emissary Jessup meets Stalin emissary Malik. Molotov out, Vyshinsky in. Marshall Plan triggers spy/propaganda game. Kennan shepherds early covert stuff. In UK, James Bond receives his 00 rating. George Smiley joins MI6.

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