Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      I mean MMT, Chinese currency policies, petrodollars... Trump trying to trash talk the Fed. Have we really evolved significantly past Bretton-Woods? Terms differ, but I think very similar monetary/fiscal policies ARE subjects of presidential speeches.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      522 million ($5.6B today) interim aid bill passes. Now fight over real bill amount and who will run it. Republican Congress does not want the State Dept. running it, so it's going to be split between State and a special Council. European conference wanted 29.2B over 4 years...

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      ...State talked them down to 19.3. Truman asks Congress for 17. Vandeberg wants to tranche it across the 4 years, which State hates since it means billion dollar appropriation bills every year. Finally, down to $6.8 for 15 months, and then down to 5.1B for 12 months.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      In today's money we're talking about $311B being negotiated down to $53B, though I don't like inflation adjusted comparisons across very different economic regimes. But just as a comparison, the Family First coronavirus bill had a price tag of $192B.https://www.crfb.org/blogs/families-first-coronavirus-response-act-will-cost-192-billion …

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Interesting sidebar on European public perceptions at the time. About 25% of Britain and France viewed the Marshall Plan as humanitarian (rest some mix of self-interest/communism containment... book doesn't have details on the poll). Italy the rate was ~33% and for the Dutch, 10%

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Soviets alarmed at enthusiasm for Marshall Plan. Agitprop ramps up. DC worried about Soviet misinformation campaigns. Proposals arise for funding for VOA broadcasts, translations of American newspapers and ad space in European media. Bill passed in January for info war ops.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Communist walkover coup in Czechoslovakia, via takeover of police and threats of direct action. Jan Masaryk gets pushed to his death. Is any European history possible without somebody getting thrown out of a window in Prague? US regrets Patton stopping short of Prague in 1945.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Brits produce a secret Cominform doccalled "Protocol M" planning worker strikes in West Germany to undermine Marshall Plan. Marshall uses it in Congress as proof of threat. Soviets denounce it as a forgery. After the bill passes, Brits admit they faked it.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Well, finally at the passage of the bill chapter, after a detour through Czechoslovakia toppling. RIP unspellable country that lasted 1918-93. At least from a spelling perspective, Czech republic and Slovakia is an improvement.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Bill passes Senate finally in March. Now growing tension as Soviet posture grows more aggressive. Opinion forming that the Marshall Plan by itself would be futile without military build-up. France cajoled into joining bizonia, so now stage set for West Germany to form.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Stalin starts spiral that will turn into the Berlin siege, using various excuses of terror threats etc. Fatefully they leave air travel due to an air collision incident between a Russian fighter and a British civilian aircraft over Berlin, and perhaps not wanting more such.

      7:37 PM - 6 Sep 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • micah.fyi ⚡🇦🇷Eduardo🇻🇪⚡ Based Prophet of the Lethe River
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          House passes bill on March 31, incl. extra 900m for military aid to Greece and Turkey, and aid to China. April 2, 1948, Economic Cooperation Act/Foreign Assistance Act passes both houses. April 3, Truman signs into law. Part of rush was commie threat in April 18 Italy elections

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 6
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Italian communists get booed in election, support for US is high. Communists+socialists drop from 40% to 31% of seats. Pro-US coalition gets absolute majority. West gets Italy. Wonder how world would be if Patton had detoured to Prague, but bill had been delayed, losing Italy.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Interesting. The US shared the plates for “occupation marks” with Soviets who promptly printed 8x as many as the US did, creating mini-inflation crisis. Luckily they were distinguishable by a dash in the serial number so the West could monetarily separate the two layer.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The siege of Berlin was as much about the Soviets trying to gain control of monetary system by killing free commerce as about anything else. They printed as much money as the Nazis did, but did not allow convertibility to roubles for their soldiers.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Economic integration was never There was underground arbitrage: US soldiers would sell things like $4 watches to Rysdysn soldiers for 10,000 marks, then redeem at official rate of 10:1 and clear a$996 profit. The mess cost US 6.75B in today’s money. Or 675m then? Much Catch-22

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          West forks off the Deutschmark which Soviets ban in Berlin. Siege on by May 18. I had no idea this currency fork was such a big part of the story.

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The Berlin Magistrat votes to restrict Soviet marks to East Berlin. Soviets bring in communist mobs to beat up those who voted for the West. Both sides introduce their own notes. Train turned back at border. This feels like a real version of the CHAZ/CHOP Seattle nonsense.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Aside: this kind of shit could easily happen in the US now. It would just be more sophisticated and involve muni bonds or something if feds and states/cities have breakdown. Currency shenanigans are a big marker of systemic breakdown. See also Indian demonetization.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Russian commander Sokolovsky begins siege proper, moving divisions into position, cutting off electricity, putting up barrage balloons. On the American side, Lucius Clay begins the famous airlift. 480 flights a day landing by June, one every 3 minutes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Sokolovsky …

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Everyone ready for bedtime story? Alright so Clay Rabbit and Sokolovsky Rabbit are fighting over Berlin and have banned each other’s currency. Deutschmarks are trading 1:4 against East marks. It’s a mess even without Softbank around to play games.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          A lot of this story revolves around US-UK physical control of Ruhr. Everybody wanted a piece of that to feature in their story. France wanted it internationalized to use it to reindustrialize. Soviets wanted Germany intact so they’d have a claim on it. Reparations golden goose.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The occupation of the Ruhr by France and Belgium after WW1 for reparations defaults was part of what led to WW2. No matter how seemingly justified reparations are dumb. Eye for an eye logic. In WW2, the western allies fought a late battle to capture it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhr_Pocket …

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Airlift continues as western parties fail to craft alt strategy. Soviets continue to insist on Potsdam framework, quadripartite decision on Berlin and rejection of currency schism. City needs 1400 tons of food, 2000 tons of coal a day. West also blockades industrial exports.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          A general feature of hostile geopolitics and international relations is rejecting all agreements except the most recent one that favors you. Since all treaties are made with imperfect info, if trust to perfect it breaks down you revert to last imperfect checkpoint.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Potsdam was obviously a mess of an agreement made in fog of war conditions. But it suited Soviets to entrench there. For US new equilibrium that allowed Marshall reconstruction over Morganthau pastoralization was better and control of Ruhr allowed them to unilaterally go there.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The treaties of international relations are like a series of really bad patches to a non-existent OS. They reflect the power balance and imperfect information of the last time the parties were temporarily not in conflict. Very Hobbesian.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Clay is hawkish. Soviets can’t afford to lose Berlin because Tito’s Yugoslavia has just defected from eastern bloc. West positions B-29s in UK as a nuclear bluff but don’t know Stalin knows it’s a bluff because they are not nuclear capable and his spy MacLean has told him.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Sidebar: I wanted to read this book since I thought it would be salient to post-Covid reconstruction. It is and isn’t. Marshall Plan was less reconstruction, more a retcon of WW2 endgame into Cold War opening and a NATO bootstrap. But maybe Covid too is an inter-war thing too.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          If so, what was the World War leading up to Covid and what is the Cold War we’re segueing into? “Europe reconstruction” = “climate” The rest of the mapping is murky af. Anyway back to the story.

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Failed attempt to resolve impasse as western ambassadors meet Stalin. Both sides misread other. West Germany is starting to recovery and heading towards forming a government in Bonn. Stalin is desperate to stop it. West is desperate because ground situation in Berlin is explosive

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The extent to which this is directly an economic regime mismatch coming to a head in a literal currency war leading to physical conflict 🤯 I hadn’t realized the extent to which the blockade and airlift were sideshows to a currency/economic conflict triggered by Marshall Plan.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          This is Stalin’s last ditch attempt to stop West Germany from forming. He doesn’t have strong hopes of succeeding and is actually playing for full control of Berlin as consolation prize. But most Berliners hate the idea and desperate to stay with the West. Riots, etc.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Again parallels to post-Covid. Different plans will have different success rates, creating tectonic pressures at interface points. Where are Berlins of today, vulnerable to post-Covid economic schisms? We’ve already seen Blue governors/mayors vs Trump+Mitch fiscal battles.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Stalin is hoping airlift will collapse before winter and will demoralize Berliners so they cave to eastern control. But West has a secret weapon: new airlift ops commander William Tunner who, wait for it, is going to Taylorize the shit out of this! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._Tunner …

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Plane porn break. C-54 Skymaster Star of the airlift. When Tunner was done cleaning up the operation, they were flying 24x7 and bringing in more food and coal than trains before the blockade. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_C-54_Skymaster …

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Back in US, Truman facing an election year, and facing criticism of warmongering from his progressive party opponent Henry Wallace, who is in Stalin’s pocket (shades of Jill Stein? 🤔) goes behind Marshall’s back to try sending his own unprepared emissary Fred Vinson to Stalin.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Sideshow at UN. Allies get a resolution out, Soviets veto it. Some tedious messiness around Argentina chairing the council under pressure from both sides. Moving on. Truman wins re-election against Republican Dewey, in what’s seen as an upset. Winter has arrived in Berlin.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Democrats now control both houses. Truman wants Vandenburg as Marshall’s replacement but he wants to stay a Republican senator. Acheson gets the job. Berlin city council under its own competing elections in West and East. Communist goons trying to derail it. Planes still flying.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Despite eastern communists (SED) attempts to interfere and intimidate, Berlin elections are won by western SPD Social Democrats who form coalition council with minority CDU to be stronger vs Soviets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Sep 9
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          End of 1948, 2B in Marshall Plan funding (20B today) has already flowed and production surpasses pre-war levels for the first time.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        32. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info