Yugoslavia under Tito resists Stalin but he doesn’t invade because Soviets aren’t strong enough to directly provoke the US.
Kinda interesting that the ideologically pure, global superpower that became familiar later did not take shape till 1949, 30y after 1919.
Conversation
Italy and France erupt into communist-backed unrest against Marshall Plan.
Damn I had no idea the Soviets instigated such direct resistance to the plan. I was under the impression it was an uncontested, peaceful aid drop.
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The tactics set back recovery in both countries and turn sentiments against communists. Both countries swing right electorally in response.
...and this is why I’m a huge skeptic of the Bernie crowd. Strong rhymes here.
Communists and socialists have learned nothing in 70 years.
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1950 vs 2020
- No Soviets but Putin trying same Stalinist tricks for same reasons
- China belt-road-initiative looks more Marshall Plan than anything the US is doing
- The US is larping 1830s Jacksonian version of itself
- As usual under inequality stress West swings fascist
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Plot shifts to DC. Truman now has to use Red Scare and threat of all Europe going communist if US aid doesn’t materialize before winter privations to persuade Congress.
Both parties are reluctant. Republicans more so. Narrative trotted out of Europeans just not working hard.
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To recap: Truman doctrine and early aid to UK was explicitly anti-communist. Marshall Plan pulled punches and pretended to be about humanitarian aid. Stalin called bullshitbon that. Now it’s back to explicit anti-communism optics. This is how we get to NATO I guess.
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1946 US loan to the UK appears to have been a big deal in this story. It forced £ convertibility to $ for UK war loans from colonies incl. India. Destroyed empire and led Marshall Plan to be more generous grants rather than loans. Finally paid off in 2006!
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“Truman’s challenge was to convince many more Republicans [besides Vanderburg] that the Marshall Plan was the answer to communism, rather than being communism itself”
The plan smelled of FDR’s WPA to many Congress. Truman had to red-scarify it to sell it.
Birth of McCarthyism?
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Holy crap. Between August - November 1947, >200 Congressmen went to tour Europe to get the facts first-hand. They went without wives or luxuries. Can’t imagine such diligence today.
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The Republicans came back convinced and converted.
‘This was a pleasssnt shock to the White House, which had been “afraid the traveling Congressnen would merely gather information to support their own prejudices.”’
Much impress. Working politics. So Amaze.
GIF
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“the great difficulty here is not so much the physical destruction of the war, but the fact that the communists have chosen this country as the scene of one of their most clever and well-financed operations against the forces of democracy.” — Nixon touring Italy as freshman 🤯
Replying to
This thing is like the Silmarrilon to today’s LOTR. The contours of everything are being laid down. Will Richard Gollum Nixon find the One Ring in a Capitol Hill bathroom while the Marshall Plan is being voted on?
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Herter committee 883-page report basically lays out Red Scare case for the plan. On Vandenberg’s advice Truman appoints 3 bipartisan committtees. Harriman being the big one. The reports fuel top secret Kremlin report on the plan.
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Richard Bissell, executive secretary to Harriman, pulled all-nighters to get the Harriman Report together in time. Later had CIA career running U2 program, Bay of Pigs, etc. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_M.
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Month after it was released 2/3 of Americans had heard of the plan and 56% approved of it. Damn!
Hard to remember a time when the US was willing to endure domestic hardship to help out the world. And this was before post-war boom. 1946 US economy was down 11%.
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Though, it was explicitly fellow feeling for Europe at the time, not Peace Corps style global altruism
“...the nations by whose citizens our land was settled and in whose tradition our civilization is rooted.” — Henry Stimson Marshall Plan PR piece in foreign affairs.
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There was a huge PR effort to sell the plan, including private and lobbying efforts. Brookings and CFR did their thing. Stimson’s article in FP became rallying flag. He became chair of the Marshall a Plan committee
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AFL-CIO supported it, as did all business/trade associations. Christian leaders loved it. Everybody loved the plan.
There was grassroots efforts to encourage Americans to accept austerities. Women were encouraged to cook with leftovers (ugh 1950s jello dishes explained?)
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The South wants a Marshall Plan for the South. ASPCA wants one for animals. Who doesn’t like free money plans 😂
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Alright. To bed. We continue tomorrow.
Homework: design your own Covid Marshall plan. Use arduinos and 3d printers if possible. Link it to a China scare so we can sell it better.
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Getting started early today since there's a heat wave on in LA and don't feel like doing much else.
Now at four-power meeting on Germany, in London, November 1947. Writing on the wall, the talks are dead on arrival. Everyone knows the West has already forked away from Potsdam.
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Talks fail as expected. Stage set for partition of Germany and unique problem of Berlin 120 miles east of border. As expected Soviets make moves to nullify the four-party control of the city following failure of the talks. This would be exciting if I didn't already know ending.
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Dizzying cast of characters moving across the stage and I'm not bothering to keep track.
Every big historical story has a unique set-piece short story within that's strategic and critical but doesn't rhyme with anything in other stories. Berlin is that for this story.
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Lots of speechifying. Everybody realizing that the Marshall Plan is not an alternative to re-armament or vice-versa, any more than Lend-Lease was an alternative to US militarization before WW2.
Will the Cold War be economic or military?
Why not both dot gif.
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WaPo, Nov 9, 1947: "If, as Bismarck says, history occurs when things happen, the last five months have teemed with history."
August 1947 looms so large in the Indian imagination (Aug 15 was independence from Britain) that it's a blindspot for me for world history elsewhere.
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'The House of Reps, Reston observed, was now not just divided into parties, "but into whose who went [to Europe for visits] and those who stayed home."'
Cf: 2020, Congress reps who made earnest attempts to determine ground reality re: Covid, vs those who stayed Trumpie.
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Lol, Henry Wallace, FDR's last veep, leads charge from the Left, arguing against the plan and suggesting a 3x bigger $50B European New Deal to be administered by the UN. So the farcicalization of the New Deal happened within a decade of the original. GND is just the latest.
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From the Right, Robert Taft trots out the same tired creating-dependency arguments and advocates cutting the plan budget. Free marketer Henry Hazlitt wants to halve the amount.
The derps of today go back to 1947 😬
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'Today, a foreign "dollar shortage" and domestic inflation would be considered matters for monetary policy...They would not be subjects of presidential speeches...Inappropriate monetary policies in both the US and Europe were... making the problems worse.'
Hmm... really?
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I mean MMT, Chinese currency policies, petrodollars... Trump trying to trash talk the Fed. Have we really evolved significantly past Bretton-Woods? Terms differ, but I think very similar monetary/fiscal policies ARE subjects of presidential speeches.
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522 million ($5.6B today) interim aid bill passes. Now fight over real bill amount and who will run it. Republican Congress does not want the State Dept. running it, so it's going to be split between State and a special Council.
European conference wanted 29.2B over 4 years...
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...State talked them down to 19.3. Truman asks Congress for 17. Vandeberg wants to tranche it across the 4 years, which State hates since it means billion dollar appropriation bills every year. Finally, down to $6.8 for 15 months, and then down to 5.1B for 12 months.
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In today's money we're talking about $311B being negotiated down to $53B, though I don't like inflation adjusted comparisons across very different economic regimes.
But just as a comparison, the Family First coronavirus bill had a price tag of $192B.
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Interesting sidebar on European public perceptions at the time. About 25% of Britain and France viewed the Marshall Plan as humanitarian (rest some mix of self-interest/communism containment... book doesn't have details on the poll). Italy the rate was ~33% and for the Dutch, 10%
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Soviets alarmed at enthusiasm for Marshall Plan. Agitprop ramps up. DC worried about Soviet misinformation campaigns. Proposals arise for funding for VOA broadcasts, translations of American newspapers and ad space in European media. Bill passed in January for info war ops.
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Communist walkover coup in Czechoslovakia, via takeover of police and threats of direct action. Jan Masaryk gets pushed to his death. Is any European history possible without somebody getting thrown out of a window in Prague? US regrets Patton stopping short of Prague in 1945.
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Brits produce a secret Cominform doccalled "Protocol M" planning worker strikes in West Germany to undermine Marshall Plan. Marshall uses it in Congress as proof of threat. Soviets denounce it as a forgery. After the bill passes, Brits admit they faked it.
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Well, finally at the passage of the bill chapter, after a detour through Czechoslovakia toppling. RIP unspellable country that lasted 1918-93. At least from a spelling perspective, Czech republic and Slovakia is an improvement.
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Bill passes Senate finally in March. Now growing tension as Soviet posture grows more aggressive. Opinion forming that the Marshall Plan by itself would be futile without military build-up. France cajoled into joining bizonia, so now stage set for West Germany to form.
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Stalin starts spiral that will turn into the Berlin siege, using various excuses of terror threats etc. Fatefully they leave air travel due to an air collision incident between a Russian fighter and a British civilian aircraft over Berlin, and perhaps not wanting more such.
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House passes bill on March 31, incl. extra 900m for military aid to Greece and Turkey, and aid to China.
April 2, 1948, Economic Cooperation Act/Foreign Assistance Act passes both houses. April 3, Truman signs into law.
Part of rush was commie threat in April 18 Italy elections
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