China is becoming increasingly vulnerable based on strengths. They import nothing they can’t do without that’s not raw materials, where they’re extra vulnerable. So tit-for-tat trade penalties don’t work.
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Post-Covid reconstruction, if there’s a lot of dematerialization and localization of consumption, so world’s export markets mainly consume industrial intermediates over finished goods, China will be significantly weakened.
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Margins on PLA filament will be much worse than on a million little plastic SKUs.
This is why I have renewed interest in things like 3D printing. Low-energy last-mile decentralized finishing processes are separating from energy-intensive first-mile centralized scaled processes.
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Software platform monopolies unlike industrial base monopolies are much easier to replicate locally once the first instance is done.
Industrial base goods have margins loaded on finished goods end where expensive markets intelligence matters most.
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You're discovering the 3D printing hype, but after everyone in the industry became disillusioned with it. Local 3DP has fundamental cost issues that won't ever replace centralized mass and even short-run production for most things.
My schtick on this:
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Just an example. I’m sure you’re right, but logic applies to many other finishing processes. Also, remember, consumption doesn’t stay unchanged through this. That’s different from first hype cycle. For min-GHG we’re talking long-life repairable items over design for obsolescence
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3D printing role looks very different if you’re using it to keep a thing maintained in good repair for 10 years instead of printing a flimsy version of the whole thing every 6 months.
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You're saying there's better business case for local 3DP for replacement parts? Sometimes this is true, though my core argument is that even this isn't where 3DP shines because most part require performance and other characteristics not possible with 3DP.
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Notably, most wear parts are actually highly complex and/or high performance (like solid or roller bearings) with multiple very specific materials (porous oil-infused bronze) with various face hardening, polishing, etc. post-proc. steps. This isn't possible with 3DP.
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So how energy intensive are these other parts processes? If China produces bronze blanks for eg, can heat-treatment and finishing be done at lower energy/GHG cost near last mile?
I’m not thinking home scale vs factory. I’m thinking big blast furnace scale factory ops vs plethora type small urban factories. 3dp is just an example of latter scale. But for eg turning and milling mild steel and aluminum with some limited heat treatment has same profile.
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I blogged about consumer 3DP in the early days, then at Wired, I'm with Nick here. It's very easy to tell a broad 3DP story, but then when you drill into specific use cases it largely falls apart. It's really a space that rewards thinking like a factory owner, not a consultant.
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Mass production has far less total energy consumption per unit. A bearing is actually made via a tooled powder molding process to get net-near shape, and then it's machined / ground using systems analogous to a rotary transfer line (very high efficiency): youtube.com/watch?v=xY1Yfw
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