China is becoming increasingly vulnerable based on strengths. They import nothing they can’t do without that’s not raw materials, where they’re extra vulnerable. So tit-for-tat trade penalties don’t work.
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The one stupid scenario which is not inconceivable is if China decides to go back to isolationism. Secure it’s own raw materials needs, cede export markets where they don’t like being strong-armed by last mile, and simply let the rest of the world suffer a transient collapse.
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I don’t think they’d do this. The allure of being a global superpower rather than a kingdom in retreat preserving its quality of life during a dark age is rather weak. Also, some raw materials equations may not balance.
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Still there’s no doubt that the rest of the world has been significantly techno-pastoralized by China’s dominance of process industries. It’s 95% farmers markets and trad larping and 5% 10x-engineer wizard work for the developed world right now, and squalor for developing world.
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The solution is robots for everyone, easy player-piano work for most, wizard work for a few. And mansions for some. Including me.
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End of conversation
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