Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 20
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      This setup to the partition of Germany in 1946 is giving me 4d chess headache. Trying to balance reparations, trade deficits, imports, rebuilding, economic integration but with political weakness, with US aid balancing the equation. That’s even before getting to doctrinal diffs.

      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 20
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      This problem goes back to Napoleonic wars. Keeping Germany economically strong enough to pay reparations but politically weak enough to not be a threat and under the control of competing adversaries. The US was a new boundary condition of aid that kinda eventually solved it.

      3 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 21
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      It’s a bit painful to read this intricate play-by-play since with 20/20 hindsight, partition of Germany, the wall etc seem inevitable. But it was not a death march. All parties were vying for other outcomes. Stalin was playing for all of Germany. Nobody wanted a 43 year impasse.

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 21
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Interesting, 40% of German housing stock was destroyed in the war but 80% of the industrial capacity survived and there were more machine tools after the war than before, most new. Dumb bombing, but lucky for after. That’s why it was a prize worth playing for.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 21
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      This whole thing seems bizarre now. They were trying to do hopelessly ill-posed Potsdam math and kinda finesse the cost of the war so nobody had to foot the bill. Still our own era has its own funny math.

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      6 futile weeks in Moscow with irreconcilable differences that only became really clear towards the end. Strong or weak Germany? Stalin proposed a plebiscite. Anyone who ever proposes a plebiscite has a plan to manipulate it. Stalin had done it in Poland already. FDR let him.

      1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Marshall concludes that Stalin was negotiating in bad faith and intended to let the German situation fester unresolved and recovery stall. Returns to US intending to announce the unilateral plan. Receives the v0.1 Frankenplan, this SWNCC committee report https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1947v01/d386 …

      1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Many Covid reboot plans look like this 😬 Sidebar: a lot of the logic of the Marshall plan was selfish, focus on boosting aggregate European demand for American exports which faced a sharp slump if Europe didn’t recover. The plan was basically a Keynesian fiscal stimulus.

      1 reply 2 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Goals for the Marshall plan were, in order: 1. Prevent communism spread 2. Prevent humanitarian crisis 3. Stop threat to American economy These elements were there in frankenplan. Just missing the blueprint for how.

      1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Marshall appoints Kennan to head up the new Policy Planning Staff. He has to come up with a plan in 2 weeks. Moral of the story: if you rewrite a Long Telegram heralding a Cold War, you’ll get stuck with the thankless job of planning it.

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Intermission with some history on US economic interventionism around the world starting around turn of the century. Free traders ruled and protectionists were on the retreat through the 20s and 30s. Motives for Marshall plan weren’t that different from banana republic policies.

      12:01 AM - 23 Aug 2020
      • 11 Likes
      • Based Prophet of the Lethe River Nicest Snog 🕶 ⚡🇦🇷Eduardo🇻🇪⚡ Warren Koch Death will not release you Thuongvu micah.fyi Bob Kerns (No PhD, but I know what one is, WSJ)
      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          It’s easy to forget just how international American businesses became after the civil war. The US might have been politically meek and reluctant until WW2 but not economically. Isolationism in geopolitics and connectionism in economics. Germany policy design was a microcosm.

          1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          ‘[Morganthau and White] had, [Acheson] lamented, “envisage[d] a victory [in war] where both enemies and allies were prostrate — enemies by military action, allies by bankruptcy” A dark view of the US participation in WW2: That the US did bail out Europe but at a price.

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Shades of Chinese belt-and-road initiative. If a rising superpower is both materially supporting you and underwriting your financial capacity to pay for that support, it looks like a free lunch but you’re signing away freedom. Europe wrt US in 1940 = Africa in 2020 wrt China.

          1 reply 2 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Peeking ahead, post-war European reconstruction and return to prosperity *could* be viewed as a deal with the US devil, with the cost being becoming a US protectorate. Truman doctrine was an imperial boundary as much as a containment boundary.

          2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Luckily the Marshall Plan was enlightened enough to at least aim at win-win unlike the Morganthau plan which was cartoon villainish. FDR was accused in 1934 of finding “the only Jew in the world who doesn’t know a thing about money” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Morgenthau_Jr ….

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Wonder if being Jewish made Morgenthau an extremist in wanting to impose a “hard peace” on Germany. Hitler and the Nazis are curiously missing in this whole discussion. I guess the economists wanted to forget that and move on.

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          It’s clear that after Yalta it was already US vs USSR. The last phase of WW2 was about laying out the cold war positions, and cleaning up the Nazis was just a minor loose end. I knew this already but book makes it clear the extreme degree to which that was true.

          4 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The last 3 months after Yalta must have been surreal. Feb- 11 - May 8 1945, the world was still focused on Nazis but powers-that-be were already continuing the infinite game. The mop-up really was a minor detail.

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 23
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Something similar might happen with Covid. Post-Covid world configuration will be worked out somewhere when the end is in sight but the war is not yet won. Big lesson right now is: Trumpism is more Morganthau than Marshall 😬 Bidenism might be too. And Xi = Stalin role? Crap.

          3 replies 1 retweet 28 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 24
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          By the time Kennan turned his long telegram into an article, he’d shifted from a perimeter containment to a strong-point defense model that demanded much lower economic burden. Congress was suspicious Soviets would drain the US economy through entanglements all along perimeter.

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 24
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Military shrank from 83B in 1945 to 42.7 in 1947 to 12.8B in 1947. Armed forced went from 12m to 1.6m personnel. Army secretary wanted 20% more budget if economic aid was voted down. The plan had to be an economic one. Literal butter over guns choice. Arm

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 24
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Truman and his Republican senate ally Vandenberg were both born in 1884. Freaks me out how such modern events were shaped by people born just before industrial modernity. Electricity was new in 1884. Airplanes didn’t exist. Humans hunted mammoths. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Vandenberg …

          2 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 26
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Kennan begins drafting PPS/1: Policy Planning Staff paper 1. Stark contrast to messy committee output of SWNCC. Lays out clear framework instead of wishful thinking muddle. https://www.russilwvong.com/future/kennan/pps1.html …

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 26
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Key doctrinal points: - No requirement to trade with East - Grants, not loans (contra Morganthau, lend-lease, IMF) - Anti-Soviet strings attached - (W) Germany to be made strong; France would have to deal - (W) Europe to be integrated; UK would have to deal

          2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 26
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Western Europe was clearly an American creation. Stalin May have created the Iron Curtain but the US created the difference across it very deliberately

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Will Clayton returns from Europe with a sense of urgency over Europe on the brink of economic collapse. He’s aligned with Kennan mostly but wants a more assertive US role, not merely financial and advisory.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          As befits a free trader capitalist, he wants proper reconstruction of corporatized, nationalized economies along more laissez-faire lines. Free market via command actions to dismantle command economies.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          ‘In Acheson’s words, Clayton wanted the plan merely to “appear to come” from Europe...The United States, he said, “must run this show.” Kennan/Clayton = good cop/bad cop. Acheson = ADA Marshall = DA

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          There was basically bipartisan drive towards a “United States of Europe.” Besides Clayton, others like Dulles, Truman, Vandenburg (formerly an isolationist) all got behind it. The EU was the result of the US intentionally reshaping Europe in its own image.

          1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Ken Anderson final PPS/1 navigates a subtle shift away from communism as cause of problems and focus of plan to core economic/cultural issues, with communism as an opportunistic infection of weakened state. And thus did Truman doctrine finesse Marshall plan into existence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Okay, Kennan has laid out doctrine and strategic logic. Clayton has defined required posture of command. But who’s going to work out the execution model? 🤔

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Enter new actor who will apparently work out the execution logic of the plan: Lucius Dubignon Clay, guy who has already made an appearance on the Berlin tactical chessboard and will soon mastermind the Berlin airlift. Now shit’s getting real https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucius_D._Clay …

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 27
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Damn autocorrect “Ken Anderson” 2 tweets up is “Kennan”

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Clay was son of a 3-time senator, but chose to go into the military. Star student but with conduct problems. Liked authoritah. Cartman, but straight-As type. Rose through logistics and engineering hierarchy without seeing combat until he was running Berlin by... my age right now.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Clay’s orders were to run Berlin by the punitive/vindictive Morganthau Plan, which was both impossible in a devastated economy and something he didn’t want to do. So he used “disease and unrest” appropriations to run the show in more humane ways, thwarting the plan’s intent.

          1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
          Show this thread
        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          “There is no choice between becoming a communist at 1500 calories and a believer in democracy at 1000” — Clay in a 1946 cable to Washington.

          1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
          Show this thread
        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          JCS 1067, the original occupation directive https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/JCS_1067 

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Replaced by JCS 1779 which I can’t find online

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Clay blamed the French more than the Russians for the recovery quagmire, and thought Kennan was a dangerously dogmatic theory guy. Interesting tension there since he himself was on the theory side of the military in a way (didn’t get to see combat despite trying)

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 29
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Marshall unveils plan in a carefully drafted commencement speech at Harvard, centering humanitarian aid and inviting Europe to make an opt-in cooperative request for US aid. Language designed to nominally allow the Soviets to join but really intended to smoke out true intentions.

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        32. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info