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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 20
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      This problem goes back to Napoleonic wars. Keeping Germany economically strong enough to pay reparations but politically weak enough to not be a threat and under the control of competing adversaries. The US was a new boundary condition of aid that kinda eventually solved it.

      3 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 21
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      It’s a bit painful to read this intricate play-by-play since with 20/20 hindsight, partition of Germany, the wall etc seem inevitable. But it was not a death march. All parties were vying for other outcomes. Stalin was playing for all of Germany. Nobody wanted a 43 year impasse.

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 21
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      Interesting, 40% of German housing stock was destroyed in the war but 80% of the industrial capacity survived and there were more machine tools after the war than before, most new. Dumb bombing, but lucky for after. That’s why it was a prize worth playing for.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 21
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      This whole thing seems bizarre now. They were trying to do hopelessly ill-posed Potsdam math and kinda finesse the cost of the war so nobody had to foot the bill. Still our own era has its own funny math.

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
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      6 futile weeks in Moscow with irreconcilable differences that only became really clear towards the end. Strong or weak Germany? Stalin proposed a plebiscite. Anyone who ever proposes a plebiscite has a plan to manipulate it. Stalin had done it in Poland already. FDR let him.

      1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
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      Marshall concludes that Stalin was negotiating in bad faith and intended to let the German situation fester unresolved and recovery stall. Returns to US intending to announce the unilateral plan. Receives the v0.1 Frankenplan, this SWNCC committee report https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1947v01/d386 …

      1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
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      Many Covid reboot plans look like this 😬 Sidebar: a lot of the logic of the Marshall plan was selfish, focus on boosting aggregate European demand for American exports which faced a sharp slump if Europe didn’t recover. The plan was basically a Keynesian fiscal stimulus.

      1 reply 2 retweets 28 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
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      Goals for the Marshall plan were, in order: 1. Prevent communism spread 2. Prevent humanitarian crisis 3. Stop threat to American economy These elements were there in frankenplan. Just missing the blueprint for how.

      1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
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      Marshall appoints Kennan to head up the new Policy Planning Staff. He has to come up with a plan in 2 weeks. Moral of the story: if you rewrite a Long Telegram heralding a Cold War, you’ll get stuck with the thankless job of planning it.

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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    10. Francis Jervis‏ @f_j_j_ Aug 22
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      Replying to @vgr

      So, did you know one of the founders of VC's father was a general w key roll in the Marshall Plan's implementation?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 22
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      Replying to @f_j_j_

      Who?

      4:04 PM - 22 Aug 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Francis Jervis‏ @f_j_j_ Aug 22
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          Replying to @vgr

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Henry_Draper_Jr …. (the . is part of the url)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Francis Jervis‏ @f_j_j_ Aug 22
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          Replying to @f_j_j_ @vgr

          Lean methods also trace back to post-WWII reconstruction of Japanese industry (Deming) of course.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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