Without looking it up iirc... right now
Apple, 1977? 43y old
Amazon, 1994, 26y old
Google, 1998, 22y old
Facebook, 2004? 16y old
Lindy effect expectations: 2063, 2046, 2042, 2036
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Tough one. Google/Amazon might be broken up or switch up their style/direction/mediums of focus enough to be unrecognizable (e.g. if google becomes just ads and loses search). Apple otoh just has a very distinctive style which could outlive any technological edge
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Funny how everyone agrees FB will be first to go. Too dependent on trends. Also I don’t get the sense they offer anything unique technologically, unlike Google for example.
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Was going to go for amazon, but then realised that 'hardware is hard' - and also required to access services. So I think amazon more resilient, more voracious, but in a riskier landscape.
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GOOG: media corp w/ a marketplace to connect small properties to advertisers FB: media property that provides a shortcut to connect orgs to their community AMZN: logistics & distribution corp connecting buyers & sellers AAPL: tool corp connecting users to the above
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Historically, facilitating commerce and distribution of things tends to be the longest game
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No Microsoft ?
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longest lived - recognizable = amazon longest lived + recognizable = facebook, apple - longest lived - recognizable = google
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Apple if their next product changes how we access the world like the iPhone did.
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