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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 13
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    Poll: Which of the Big 4 companies will turn out to be longest lived in a firm recognizably and meaningfully descended from present form?

    11:42 PM - 13 Aug 2020
    • 8 Retweets
    • 13 Likes
    • Eshaan Kaul Divia Eden The Legendary Dragon Alephwyr, named Alephwyr, BA acid shill sunny packet Alex Schleber 👽😷 foo Nyarlarrythotep ostensibly nil
    16 replies 8 retweets 13 likes
      1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Aug 13
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        Without looking it up iirc... right now Apple, 1977? 43y old Amazon, 1994, 26y old Google, 1998, 22y old Facebook, 2004? 16y old Lindy effect expectations: 2063, 2046, 2042, 2036 🤔.

        2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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      1. Warren Koch‏ @cacophonicadent Aug 13
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        Replying to @vgr

        Tough one. Google/Amazon might be broken up or switch up their style/direction/mediums of focus enough to be unrecognizable (e.g. if google becomes just ads and loses search). Apple otoh just has a very distinctive style which could outlive any technological edge

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      1. Amory Manuel‏ @amory_manuel Aug 14
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        Replying to @vgr

        Funny how everyone agrees FB will be first to go. Too dependent on trends. Also I don’t get the sense they offer anything unique technologically, unlike Google for example.

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      2. Dil Green: Novel: -Money/-Governance/-Wisdom‏ @dilgreen Aug 14
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        Replying to @vgr

        Was going to go for amazon, but then realised that 'hardware is hard' - and also required to access services. So I think amazon more resilient, more voracious, but in a riskier landscape.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2.  🏴‍☠️Patrick‏ @gunderson Aug 14
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        Replying to @vgr

        GOOG: media corp w/ a marketplace to connect small properties to advertisers FB: media property that provides a shortcut to connect orgs to their community AMZN: logistics & distribution corp connecting buyers & sellers AAPL: tool corp connecting users to the above

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3.  🏴‍☠️Patrick‏ @gunderson Aug 14
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        Replying to @gunderson @vgr

        Historically, facilitating commerce and distribution of things tends to be the longest game

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Harshal Carpenter‏ @McQuinTrix Aug 14
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        Replying to @vgr

        No Microsoft ?🙁

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      1. brainlet‏ @magicianbrain Aug 14
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        Replying to @vgr

        longest lived - recognizable = amazon longest lived + recognizable = facebook, apple - longest lived - recognizable = google

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      1. Alexa‏ @artfuture Aug 14
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        Replying to @vgr

        Apple if their next product changes how we access the world like the iPhone did.

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