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I’m using a heuristic of 1 week of recession for every day in lockdown. So if this lasts 18 months, that’s about 10 years. Heuristic is from ICUs for humans: week in recovery per day in ICU. Lockdown as society in ICU.
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I think we’re in a fundamentally different place than 1930. Even if we also have a dust-bowl level drought, irrigation is far more advanced. No-one in America can relate 2 what poverty meant then. People aren’t willing to go pick produce let alone build a mega-dam w/o OSHA.