I’m using a heuristic of 1 week of recession for every day in lockdown. So if this lasts 18 months, that’s about 10 years.
Heuristic is from ICUs for humans: week in recovery per day in ICU. Lockdown as society in ICU.
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10 years depression, like 1929-39
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heuristic from planarians: week regenerating per day getting cut in half. If this lasts eighteen months, in ten years we will have 4.7 * 10^21 genetically identical economies.
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a heuristic that compares human bodies to the economy is a metaphor, not a heuristic
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In case that's depressing, consider a variation on my mom's (in hindsight ridiculous and needing inflationary update) job-search heuristic: 1 month search per $10K in salary
X positive GDP growth points for every month in lockdown?
Lockdown as society looking for a new job
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