10 years depression, like 1929-39
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It sounds catchy but bodies heal at a certain rate that is fairly measurable, correlateable, predictable. There have been millions of broken legs over the years, but societies haven't been breaking down frequently enough around the same root causes to get a good sample size.
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heuristic from planarians: week regenerating per day getting cut in half. If this lasts eighteen months, in ten years we will have 4.7 * 10^21 genetically identical economies.
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a heuristic that compares human bodies to the economy is a metaphor, not a heuristic
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In case that's depressing, consider a variation on my mom's (in hindsight ridiculous and needing inflationary update) job-search heuristic: 1 month search per $10K in salary X positive GDP growth points for every month in lockdown? Lockdown as society looking for a new job
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