586k deaths, 6 months in. Best case scenario, I’m guessing 3-4 million before it settles into a background rate, with no serious collapse, and only a decade long economic recession/depression. Worst case could be arbitrarily bad depending on what else breaks.
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cone of uncertainty is wild. could disappear like SARS (with more contagious & less harmful mutation), turn worse, or turn into seasonal waves - virii evolve quickly
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Adjusted for the increase in world population, the 1968 "Hong Kong Flu" would kill 2m and 1957 "Asian Flu" over 4m, with a greater toll on younger ppl than covid.
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