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For eg. during the Black Death, children were basically treated as not even really alive till they made it past 7 or 8. Their mortality rate was too high. Feudalism was quite a flat political structure at the nobility level. Individual nobles dying was rarely a crisis.
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In WW1, humans were cheap enough to waste in attrition trench warfare. Industrial production was mostly based on interchangeable humans. Very few humans were single-point failure modes.
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Now, in our late industrial mode, with hyperspecialization, the world is not super resistant to high death rates. Which means even small death rates can do a lot of damage. Especially in clustered breakouts which might take out key civilizational widgets.
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If everybody is either a farmer or warrior in a 9:1 ratio say, the world can tolerate a lot higher death rate than when there are a few dozen artisan trades. And when you get 10s of 1000s of literate roles doing highly specialized things... even small uptick in death is very bad.
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I think this could be computed to allow normalized comparisons across history. Like maybe 1 random extra death today is as damaging as 10 random extra deaths in 1918 and 100 random extra deaths in 1348?
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Note, it’s not death rate itself that causes a problem. It’s death rate and backfill delay. The higher the skill level, the longer it takes to backfill. Another confounding variable is the residual high-r jobs under the api. And whaddya know, they are the ones risked the most.
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But there’s also high K roles under high risk, like specialized doctors. Sol this hypothesis has a lot of details to be worked out. It’s not a simple, elegant theory. It’s a messy heuristic for mapping system survivability in terms of soecuslization/redundancy/r/backfill
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Note that severe labor shortage was one of the effects of the Black Death. Already by them society was specialized enough it couldn’t tolerate the death rate. Society collapsed quite deeply.
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I suspect it is nonlinear in death rate. Fungibility at an annual 30% turnover rate does not mean fungibility at monthly 10% for eg. The training costs and time alone for even a simple job start to mount and drag
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Yeah that’s why there’s serious coercive pressure being applied on labor to return to work in meat industry for eg. They couldn’t handle serious absenteeism. Takes time to automate or backfill and meanwhile animals are still piling up as a slaughter backlog.
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