Conversation

Sometimes I think about how it’s weird that we all have to play a giant weird magical thinking game of “predict the future of the entire world in terms of stocks” just to ensure a modest middle-class retirement.
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My parents mainly relied on a pension. My grandparents on “build a city house” with benefits passing to my parents. My great grandparents afaict were all “village land plus gold” Through much of history nobody thought of the future at all. Planning = land+gold+weapons.
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The mindset we bring to retirement investing is what our ancestors brought to afterlife investing. Prayers and ritual observances tailored to a fine-grained sense of sin/virtue karmic cash flow and afterlife belief portfolios. Pascal’s wager is *normal* 17th century mindset.
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This game is not something I have much aptitude for, yet I have to play it, as do you. We are all far less fit for this job of insuring the last third of our lives than we are for however we earn a living. Yet collectively it works better than command-economy+gold+land.
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The 1/3 life job most of us have but don’t want. Kinda like going to school. The first and last thirds of life are dominated by “jobs” most people don’t want. Annoying. Four stages of life: school, precarious survival, portfolio management, healthcare system navigation.
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Great points. Indeed, investing in equities is all about belief (as historical results don’t predict future results) and mindfulness (don’t panic sell at lows)