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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jul 7
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    Sometimes I think about how it’s weird that we all have to play a giant weird magical thinking game of “predict the future of the entire world in terms of stocks” just to ensure a modest middle-class retirement.

    3:17 PM - 7 Jul 2020
    • 29 Retweets
    • 233 Likes
    • airborne caipira 🎥➰📟〰️🏮🔜 🧟‍♂️ fleck Dead End Rahul Ramchandani de_merindol Taina 𝕝𝕖𝕠𝕟 𝕥𝕚𝕞𝕟𝕒 DAVID SUGARMAN
    13 replies 29 retweets 233 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jul 7
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        My parents mainly relied on a pension. My grandparents on “build a city house” with benefits passing to my parents. My great grandparents afaict were all “village land plus gold” Through much of history nobody thought of the future at all. Planning = land+gold+weapons.

        2 replies 2 retweets 50 likes
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      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jul 7
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        The mindset we bring to retirement investing is what our ancestors brought to afterlife investing. Prayers and ritual observances tailored to a fine-grained sense of sin/virtue karmic cash flow and afterlife belief portfolios. Pascal’s wager is *normal* 17th century mindset.

        3 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
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      4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jul 7
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        This game is not something I have much aptitude for, yet I have to play it, as do you. We are all far less fit for this job of insuring the last third of our lives than we are for however we earn a living. Yet collectively it works better than command-economy+gold+land.

        3 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
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      5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jul 7
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        The 1/3 life job most of us have but don’t want. Kinda like going to school. The first and last thirds of life are dominated by “jobs” most people don’t want. Annoying. Four stages of life: school, precarious survival, portfolio management, healthcare system navigation.

        1 reply 8 retweets 78 likes
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      6. End of conversation
      1. Chris Catoya  🌱  🦒  🤝‏ @ChrisCatoya Jul 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        Just buy whatever the Fed is buying

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. ni͛cebi͛t.net ₿ ⚡️‏ @nicebit_net Jul 7
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        Replying to @vgr @evankaloudis

        Unless you HODL.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. monk‏ @yetanothermonk Jul 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        Collecting beta != alpha

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      1. Mark‏ @salymnr Jul 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        At 65ish average person gets ~20k/year. For comparison, HS grad median person income is ~33k. College grad ~61k. You get 1/3 to 2/3 of your income guaranteed. For the rest you buy a single index stock or a target fund for your retirement date. Only magic is compound interest.

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      2. Cody Taylor‏ @codytaylor Jul 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        Isn’t this really an argument for robo advisors? Most of us lack the interest and/or aptitude for this calculus, and (especially with the near-disappearance of pensions) almost everyone now has to think about this. Most of us would likely benefit from outsourcing this again.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Eli Tyre‏ @EpistemicHope Jul 7
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        Replying to @codytaylor @vgr

        @threadreaderapp unroll

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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