Vague hypothesis: big disruptions temporarily level playing field between retail investors and pro investors slightly. They've suddenly had a lot of analysis trashed (cache invalidation/branch prediction error), and while they build it back up you might be able to turn faster.
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When market makes a mistake you accidentally fail to make, you do NOT want a passivity theology tempt you into *actively* tracking that mistake while it is still correcting. Ie, I'll probably still rebalance and try to lower concentration to be back to mostly index, but...later
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I'm not claiming any prescience here. I bet on "software eating the world" not "swew+covid=accelerationist wet dream." I was accidentally a bit more right than the market in a 3-month horizon. Empire may strike back and force world back to dystopian reboot into old normal.
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So I guess my actual implied thesis in NOT rebalancing right now is that the market will not waste the reboot, and will eventually steer into the acceleration despite money printer going brrr to pretend Covid didn't happen.
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End of conversation
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