Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      The word “invest” has 2 distinct meanings in relation to capital: Invest (1): Spend money to build a capability. Example: a bridge, a factory, a mansion. Invest (2): Spend money to acquire a formal stake in an existing capability. Example: stock, bond, lien. 2 now dominates 1

      12 replies 67 retweets 384 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      The two are coupled. For example, you invest (2) in my company so I can invest (1) in a new factory. Instead of shareholder value or a dividend, you might claim a share of the output at a good price for example (offtakes, kinda like futures)https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/offtake-agreement.asp …

      1 reply 0 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      To me it seems like the natural arrangement. The recent thing with negative oil prices should not seem weird at all. When you buy oil futures, the natural assumption should be that you’ll actually take delivery. Invest (2) should imply a direct stake in invest (1).

      2 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      It’s a moral hazard to purely invest (2) in money-in-money-out (MIMO) ways. You have no interest in how black box works. All knowledge risk lies with investee. If your MIMO deal is not honored you can’t tell fraud apart from real problems. You can’t judge whether to grant relief.

      2 replies 1 retweet 46 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      This is the definition o dumb money. Of course most real investment (2) does informally include some appreciation of the underlying investment (1), but not in any way that is operationally specific. Few investors who play for even controlling stakes actually desire control.

      1 reply 0 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Control in finance has come to mean “control of the board and ability to hire/fire top executives” which is increasingly just too shallow to address the complexity of modern principal-agent relations. Money *wants* to be stupid because the wealthy don’t want to do invest (2) work

      2 replies 1 retweet 49 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Financialization, “shareholder value” as a disease etc all have their roots in a single psychological problem: the rich are really lazy. They don’t want to put in the work to make their money smart. They want to either swarm opportunities via imitation, or rely on “analysts”

      4 replies 8 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted high tech. low life.  🏴 🏴

      Sorry, typo... 2 tweets up should be “don’t want to do invest (1) work” https://twitter.com/maxwells_d3mon/status/1277268243405815809?s=21 …https://twitter.com/maxwells_d3mon/status/1277268243405815809 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      high tech. low life.  🏴 🏴 @maxwells_d3mon
      Replying to @vgr
      You mean invest (1) work right?
      8:52 AM - 28 Jun 2020
      • 18 Likes
      • Vrushali Desai Paulo Silveira The Legendary Dragon Alephwyr, named Alephwyr, BA Abstract Fairy Eoin Chadwick Lucy Keer ❄️🪣 multi_modality RichardT sp4ghet@すぱげっと
      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          There is a lot of bullshit conservative sermonizing about how the poor deserve their fates because they don’t work hard and that’s why the economy suffers etc. This is not only not the problem, it is not even true. Most economic problems arise from the rich not work hard enough.

          3 replies 9 retweets 98 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          If you have 10s of millions of dollars, it *matters* how hard you, PERSONALLY think about where to put it. Even a single degree of delegation creates huge principal-agent distortions. To the extent some wealth creation opportunities need concentrated capital, the rich must think.

          2 replies 4 retweets 84 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Some rich do think and work hard but they think wide and shallow for the “highest ROIC” (where the I is investment (2), not (1)) opportunities. They rarely think deep about how a particular invest (2) will drive the invest (1). They don’t care about the meaning of the money.

          1 reply 0 retweets 45 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          There is something deeply nihilistic, stupid, fearful, and acting-dead about this. If the only difference between 2 investments for you is return rates, and you are not curious about the futures implied by investing in either, you’re kinda dumb and boring.

          2 replies 6 retweets 124 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          “Capital seeking returns” is a stupid 1-quarter-out mindset. It aspires to be as smart as evolution, which is also “blind”, but doesn’t have a similar (2) —> (1) indirection injecting stupidity. Genes don’t magically jump to the most fecund species driving booms/busts.

          2 replies 1 retweet 32 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          If biological evolution, to which market is often compared, were as stupid as market, entire gene pool would have jumped into the horniest pair of rabbits a million years ago and life would have vanished in one giant subprime rabbit boom and bust. Evolution invests (1), not (2).

          2 replies 10 retweets 83 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Ie capital is too mobile. It has ADHD. It rarely hangs around long enough to learn about survival in a given evolutionary niche and create civilizational wealth there. The exception is when people like Musk force money to pay attention, making invest (1)= invest (2)

          2 replies 1 retweet 51 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Notably capital markets have a notion of seeking alpha (novel information to guide investment) but no notion of how long that information needs to be acted on to realize value. New alpha simply moves the money, regardless of whether or not it actually invalidates previous alpha.

          2 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          It’s obvious why. Because capital is so imitative, the primary payoff of alpha is convincing others there *is* alpha. Most invest (2) is a bigger-fool scheme that has zero structural interest in the actual meaning of a piece of alpha.

          1 reply 3 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Better mousetrap? Most value lies in convincing others it is better. Teleportation technology? Most value lies in convincing others it is exciting. Capital isn’t interested in either unless someone detains it by force for long enough.

          1 reply 0 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          There have been ideas like long term stock market etc, but I think they’re too crude and give up too much information sensitivity. Kind of thing I have in mind would be stocks that act like bonds. What if stocks were priced based on how long you were willing to hold?

          1 reply 0 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Not RSUs or options per se. The same stock would cost $10 instead of $15 if you committed not to sell until next year etc. Ie invest (2) would effectively rent, not own equity. But not in the sense of options. A hotel room night costs more than a year lease on apartment for eg.

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          One of the reasons I’m in indie consulting is I only have time to invest, not money. But the other reason is that it allows you to bridge invest (2) (abstract management theories, macro trends) and invest (1) (applying it to a specific company, going as deep as possible)

          1 reply 0 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Not all consultants do this. There are lazy equivalents to investors (2) who you can call consultants (2). Jump from client to client, never bothering to understand any business, shilling the same “process” workshop regardless of context. Lean, “design thinking”, holacracy 🙄

          1 reply 0 retweets 34 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Detest those types. They give the rest of us a bad name. There is no such thing as a context-independent business process or function. If you don’t care to learn about a business and adapt your offering, you’re lazily peddling fads the same way investors (2) lazily pump up stocks

          1 reply 1 retweet 36 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          But back to economy after that bit of product placement. This whole point is why I’m not a socialist. I don’t think it matters much who “owns” the capital. Whether it is a workers coop or a fat-cat single rich person, the question is how hard they think.

          2 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          A single wealthy person might decide where to put a million dollars by spending 10 hours thinking about it. A collective of 100 people each with a 10k stake in a million might spend an hour each thinking about it, so 100 hours. 100 diverse hours or 10 single-mind hours?

          3 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          On paper that’s 10x the hours but most of it will go to solving the coordination problem. The collective will be smarter in some cases, he single mind will be smarter in others. The solution is a mix of concentrated and distributed capital pools driven by both kinds of smarts.

          1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          I’m learning this the hard way with the @yak_collective Some projects I’d take to that consulting collective hive-mind, others I’d do by myself. Very different challenges. Same with money. Distributed investing is very hard. This is why passive investment in everything works.

          1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted

          This tldrs the whole thread so far 😂 https://twitter.com/jimyoull/status/1277286206997327872?s=21 … https://twitter.com/JimYoull/status/1277286206997327872 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          4 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          You can’t fix the problems of markets and capitalism by changing who gets to be stupid and uninterested in the details of where it goes. Smart money is simply money that is paying attention to what it is doing. No matter what the mechanism and who is investing, attention is key.

          3 replies 5 retweets 43 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Radical thought: centrally planned Soviet communism and Chinese capitalism aren’t actually that different from Western markets. All suffer from the exact same divorce between invest (1) and invest (2) leading to dumb ADD money. They all just have different externalities.

          2 replies 2 retweets 37 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          You could actually construct a Dictator’s Handbook style grand unified model comparing all three consistently. Selectorate theory can compare the substance of governance systems while ignoring their formal doctrinal differences. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selectorate_theory …

          1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          In that theory you compare democracies and dictatorships in terms of 3 groups: nominal selectorate, real selectorate, winning coalition. Aka interchangeables, influentials, essentials. In my economic theory: passive investors, investor-2s, investor-1s.pic.twitter.com/rdATzMrFmu

          3 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          USSR, modern China, and modern West represent differences in degree, not kind. All 3 are just different points in the 3D vector space of investor-selectorate theory. For USSR, Spufford’s Red Plenty comes highly recommended. I’ve read summaries.https://www.amazon.com/Red-Plenty-Francis-Spufford/dp/1555976042 …

          4 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        27. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Okay, after a run and a shower, I have more to say. I probably have among the biggest income source spans on the planet. I’ve been paid directly by billionaires and centimillionaires for consulting, and by starving artists who can barely make rent via newsletter subs/ebook buys

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        28. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          This makes me part of the direct service class, not that different from butlers or restaurant waiters. Bridging two very different worlds. Each side unconsciously tries really hard to avoid direct, humanizing contact with the other.

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          There is a motivated interest in doing this. Humanizing contact falsifies glib generalizations like “the poor are just lazy” or “the rich are just venal” and class-based theories of how things fail. This allows them to blame absolutely everything systemically wrong on other side.

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        30. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          On both sides I listen more than I talk (which may seem impossible to some who complain that I talk too much), while making it clear that the counterparty should not assume my sympathies. One way or another I’m being paid to think on their behalf, not commiserate. Like a lawyer.

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        31. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jun 28
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          To both sides I’m slightly suspect. The poor are suspicious of my work with the rich, and I’m often accused outright of being a petit bourgeoisie capitalist shill. Which is 100% true. Equally the rich often suggest I’m a commie in bourgeois disguise. Also 100% true.

          2 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
          Show this thread
        32. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info