speaking of long bets, what do you think will be the fate of woke and cancel culture in 10 years?
Specifically, June20, 2030.
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Heisenwoke: when people can’t tell if you’re woke or antiwoke, and you exist in a state of complex superposition of being canceled and not-canceled at the same time.
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The more reasonable aspects will be thoroughly absorbed into basic politeness, the silliest excesses will be forgotten in favor of something just as silly but novel.
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Courts. Appointed "representation panels" to handle sub-criminal disputes inside of various cultures, with different standards of evidence - the equivalent of mediation services in commercial contract disputes or divorces.
I think there's something to this.
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it will be looked back as a necessary correction that went too far at times
people who are still on about it will be seen as exhausting by most people, both right and left
free speech won't be severely impacted over that time scale (might have a year or two where it is tho)
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It'll keep getting worse, we will just accept the new reality that you can't participate in academia unless you hold far-left views, and a bunch more statues will be taken down.
It may run into diminishing returns where there's no-one left to cancel, no statues left, etc.
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"Woke" isn't going anywhere, people like that have always been around in some form, maybe not at the front.
Cancel culture I can see reaching an upper-limit where you can't replace wrong-doers with people untainted by power fast enough, allowing other players to take advantage.
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Could backfire, resulting in only people impervious to shame sticking around in positions of power
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