If you‘re working to a plan and it’s not about bringing something new into the world, by definition you’re living in the past
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The rare exception is when you’re working to a plan that’s not about novelty but based on a prediction that you get right and most people get wrong by default assumption. Then it’s everybody else who’s working to an implicit plan rooted in whenever the assumption was undermined
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It’s easier to invent the future than to predict it, but if you can’t, it’s easier to predict the future when everybody else is making a major branch prediction error. You could still be working to a plan stuck in the past but if it’s on the right branch you’re still ahead.
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The stock market is of course the main arena where this dynamic is visible in stylized form, especially around major crashes. But the general world futures arena is a lot more interesting. Like VHS vs Betamax, everybody’s favorite cliche example.
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The most interesting cases are where it’s a mix of self-fulfilling prophecy and ground truth prediction market. “Worse is better” markets. Where “worse” does not equal “wrong,” social proof picks among underconstrained possible futures. Meme markets seem to work like that.
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