Conversation

In real-life examples of strategy, you almost never find the kind of too-clever multi-level silliness you see in caper movies. A: Realistic: “He think I’m going to do X” B: Not realistic: “He thinks I think he thinks I’ll do X” It gets indistinguishable from noise very quickly
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What’s the gist? I’m very dubious anyone models at more than 1 level in 90% of cases outside of puzzles about perfect logicians with marks on their foreheads
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apropos of that thread on Hans Witsenhausen (it’s a travesty that Aumann is practically a household name among the students of strategy and conflict, but not Witsenhausen)
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His most insightful (and most abstruse) paper is on distributed situations where the game tree is not definable a priori, but evolves dynamically during play: given who knows what/when and what they can do with it, how can we know there are no deadlocks or race conditions.
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