In real-life examples of strategy, you almost never find the kind of too-clever multi-level silliness you see in caper movies.
A: Realistic: “He think I’m going to do X”
B: Not realistic: “He thinks I think he thinks I’ll do X”
It gets indistinguishable from noise very quickly
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What’s the gist? I’m very dubious anyone models at more than 1 level in 90% of cases outside of puzzles about perfect logicians with marks on their foreheads
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Yeah, Witsenhausen notion of information state is the right lens on this. More levels of recursive analysis does not mean more primitive random information.
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this looks really interesting — good source to read about it?
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I have paper copies of a couple of his unpublished notes from a course in grad school... but this might give you a taste of what he's about. It's a fairly abstruse/t/technical field (decentralized stochastic control) users.ece.cmu.edu/~pgrover/files
Basically, he is known for exploring the question of "who knows what, when?" in distributed systems, and coming up with a clever counter-example showing some fundamental difficulties. The tldr of his contribution is "follow the primitive information" (like "follow the money")
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