Calcutta cyclone is a classic large-scale “normal accident” where 2 failures coincide and interact in a way you cannot plan for. “Extreme weather in a pandemic” is too much even for a developed country with lots of resources to throw at a problem.
Lots more like this to come.
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Yes. More to come. Add locust attack forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Mq59Cz37
I am becoming pessimistic day by day.
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Lots of economics is like this. Far too much time spent trying to find causes & culprits. Reality is that once you get into a vulnerable state (i.e. too much leverage) randomness will eventually take you down in what appears to be a “perfect storm” or X-sigma event.


